Fourth Down Data
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DUKE

Duke

Blue DevilsRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference1-0#80 (-0.37)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

42· COverall
Offense
9· FRating
19· DPer play
8· FConsistency
39· DBig plays
Defense
93· ARating
82· BPer play
85· BConsistency
Situational
23· DRed-zone O
91· A-Red-zone D
77· B3rd down O
78· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.051
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.074
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.157
Defensive EPA/play
-0.366
lower = better
Off Success Rate
36.4%
Def Success Rate
28.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
10.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.209
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.31

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.04
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.26
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Duke ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
15th
Opp-adjusted defense
93th
Offensive EPA/play
19th
Defensive EPA/play
82th
Offensive success rate
9th
Explosiveness
39th
Defensive havoc
87th
Points per drive
20th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Northern Illinois2017OA -0.083 / +0.118similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate4232Missouri2019OA -0.070 / +0.066similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, run defense3773Utah2023OA -0.066 / +0.115similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, defensive success rate3724TCU2020OA -0.008 / +0.043similar: defensive EPA, defensive success rate, havoc rate3725Troy2025OA -0.100 / +0.021similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, offensive EPA354

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Tulane17-3W-7.5W51U
2@ Illinois------
3vs Stanford------
4vs William & Mary------
6@ Georgia Tech------
7vs North Carolina------
8@ Virginia------
9vs Boston College------
10@ NC State------
11@ Miami------
12vs Clemson------
13@ Wake Forest------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off50thRush Off7thRed Zone Off23th3rd Down Off78thPass Def99thRush Def43thRed Zone Def92th3rd Down Def79th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.15718th-0.36691th
Red Zone-0.26123th-0.92292th
Third Down+0.55578th-0.43979th
No Garbage Time-0.15720th-0.36683th
First Half-0.07634th-0.22269th
Second Half-0.25015th-0.44693th
Early Downs-0.2727th-0.16363th
Passing Downs+0.04250th-0.83599th
Standard Downs-0.3157th-0.06243th
Goal to Go-0.5438th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 36.4%Rush 63.6%
Havoc/Game
17.0
Havoc Rate
30.4%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
381.0
Pts/Drive
1.31
3rd Down%
44.4%
3&Out%
30.8%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Duke vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatDukeOpponents
Scoring
Points173
Points / Game17.03.0
First Downs
Total2010
Rushing112
Passing76
Penalty22
Rushing
Attempts4926
Yards25054
Yards / Carry5.12.1
Yards / Game250.054.0
Touchdowns20
Passing
Attempts2830
Completions1317
Completion %46.4%56.7%
Yards131204
Yards / Attempt4.76.8
Touchdowns00
Interceptions00
Passer Rating85.73113.79
Total Offense
Plays7756
Yards381258
Yards / Play4.94.6
Yards / Game381.0258.0
Punt Returns
Returns42
Yards512
Average1.36.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns01
Yards024
Average—24.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts47
Yards217315
Average54.345.0
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles21
Lost11
Penalties
Penalties815
Yards53109
Yards / Game53.0109.0
Time of Possession
Per Game36:3523:25
Third Downs
Attempts1814
Conversions83
Conversion %44.4%21.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts42
Conversions10
Conversion %25.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips51
Scores (TD + FG)31
Score %60.0%100.0%
Touchdowns20
TD %40.0%0.0%
Field Goals
Attempts22
Made11
Pct50.0%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts20
Made20
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →