Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns Football Analytics

Louisiana

Ragin' CajunsRun-Heavy

Sun Belt Conference1-0#30 (+5.75)

Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

78· BOverall

Offense

63· CRating

80· BPer play

75· BConsistency

82· BBig plays

Defense

81· BRating

65· CPer play

48· CConsistency

Situational

52· CRed-zone O

93· ARed-zone D

20· D3rd down O

40· C3rd down D

How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense

+0.023

Opp-Adj Defense

-0.011

higher = better

Offensive EPA/play

+0.264

Defensive EPA/play

-0.206

lower = better

Off Success Rate

50.7%

Def Success Rate

38.3%

allowed · lower = better

Explosive Rate

28.1%

pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8

Explosive Allowed

0.0%

lower = better

Net EPA/play

+0.470

net · higher = better

Recent EPA Trend

0.000

last 3 weeks

Points / Drive

4.67

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating

-0.04

expected pts/game

Kicking

+0.09

own kicking game

Kick Defense

+0.07

vs opponent kicks

Returns

-0.24

own return game

Return Defense

+0.04

vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Louisiana ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense

65th

Opp-adjusted defense

42th

Offensive EPA/play

81th

Defensive EPA/play

66th

Offensive success rate

59th

Explosiveness

83th

Defensive havoc

82th

Points per drive

77th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oregon2017OA +0.036 / +0.077similar: rushing offense, pass defense, TD drive rate377 2Georgia State2021OA +0.037 / +0.060similar: run defense, rushing offense, havoc rate336 3Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, rushing offense332 4Ohio2024OA +0.018 / +0.035similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, turnover rate328 5Cincinnati2019OA +0.024 / +0.099similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, passing offense324

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

Wk	Opponent	Score	W/L	Spread	ATS	Total	O/U
1	vs Lamar	38-7	W	-20.5	W	48.5	U
2	@ USC	-	-	-	-	-	-
3	vs UAB	-	-	-	-	-	-
4	@ Charlotte	-	-	-	-	-	-
5	vs Arkansas State	-	-	-	-	-	-
6	@ Louisiana Tech	-	-	-	-	-	-
7	vs Troy	-	-	-	-	-	-
8	@ Southern Miss	-	-	-	-	-	-
10	vs South Alabama	-	-	-	-	-	-
11	@ UL Monroe	-	-	-	-	-	-
12	vs Coastal Carolina	-	-	-	-	-	-
13	@ Georgia State	-	-	-	-	-	-

Betting Profile

ATS Record

1-0

100.0%

O/U Record

0-1

0.0%

Straight Up

1-0

100.0%

Home ATS1-0

Away ATS0-0

Favorite ATS1-0

Underdog ATS0-0

Last 5 ATS

Full ATS log & splits →

Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Situation	OFF EPA	OFF Rank	DEF EPA	DEF Rank
Overall	-0.046	34th	-0.243	78th
Red Zone	+0.121	52th	-1.043	94th
Third Down	-0.301	20th	+0.024	40th
No Garbage Time	+0.264	82th	-0.206	66th
First Half	+0.264	80th	-0.206	68th
Second Half	-0.314	9th	-0.308	81th
Early Downs	+0.051	56th	-0.449	92th
Passing Downs	-0.098	34th	+0.215	26th
Standard Downs	-0.024	39th	-0.424	91th
Goal to Go	+0.427	62th	-	0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.6%Rush 59.4%

Havoc/Game

18.0

Havoc Rate

29.5%

TO Margin

+1.0

Explosive/G

9.0

Yards/Game

474.0

Pts/Drive

4.67

3rd Down%

37.5%

3&Out%

16.7%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Louisiana vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.

Stat	Louisiana	Opponents
Scoring
Points	38	7
Points / Game	38.0	7.0
First Downs
Total	26	16
Rushing	14	4
Passing	12	10
Penalty	0	2
Rushing
Attempts	41	29
Yards	243	56
Yards / Carry	5.9	1.9
Yards / Game	243.0	56.0
Touchdowns	5	0
Passing
Attempts	28	31
Completions	20	18
Completion %	71.4%	58.1%
Yards	231	149
Yards / Attempt	8.3	4.8
Touchdowns	0	0
Interceptions	3	3
Passer Rating	119.30	79.08
Total Offense
Plays	69	60
Yards	474	205
Yards / Play	6.9	3.4
Yards / Game	474.0	205.0
Punt Returns
Returns	2	1
Yards	26	1
Average	13.0	1.0
Touchdowns	0	0
Kickoff Returns
Returns	1	5
Yards	0	100
Average	0.0	20.0
Touchdowns	0	0
Punting
Punts	2	3
Yards	86	125
Average	43.0	41.7
Interception Returns
Returns	3	3
Yards	0	40
Touchdowns	0	1
Fumbles
Fumbles	0	2
Lost	0	1
Penalties
Penalties	6	5
Yards	48	30
Yards / Game	48.0	30.0
Time of Possession
Per Game	33:38	26:22
Third Downs
Attempts	8	13
Conversions	3	7
Conversion %	37.5%	53.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts	2	2
Conversions	1	0
Conversion %	50.0%	0.0%
Red Zone
Trips	4	1
Scores (TD + FG)	4	0
Score %	100.0%	0.0%
Touchdowns	3	0
TD %	75.0%	0.0%
Field Goals
Attempts	1	1
Made	1	0
Pct	100.0%	0.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts	5	1
Made	5	1
Pct	100.0%	100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts	0	0
Made	0	0

Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.

Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →