Fourth Down Data
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ODU

Old Dominion

MonarchsRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference1-0#115 (-6.75)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

17· DOverall
Offense
4· FRating
20· DPer play
30· DConsistency
35· DBig plays
Defense
40· CRating
77· BPer play
74· BConsistency
Situational
62· CRed-zone O
73· BRed-zone D
82· B3rd down O
52· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.079
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.013
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.155
Defensive EPA/play
-0.281
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.6%
Def Success Rate
35.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.126
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.58

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.01
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.09
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.11
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Old Dominion ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
6th
Opp-adjusted defense
59th
Offensive EPA/play
20th
Defensive EPA/play
77th
Offensive success rate
30th
Explosiveness
35th
Defensive havoc
92th
Points per drive
47th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Liberty2022OA -0.042 / +0.014similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3732Bowling Green2023OA -0.057 / +0.051similar: turnover rate, passing offense, offensive success rate3643Southern Miss2022OA -0.126 / +0.054similar: passing offense, rushing offense, havoc rate3624South Carolina2024OA -0.002 / +0.053similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, defensive success rate3465Georgia State2020OA +0.011 / +0.030similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, havoc rate338

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Norfolk State31-10W-41.0L52.5U
2@ Virginia Tech------
3vs East Carolina------
4vs James Madison------
5@ Georgia State------
6@ App State------
7vs Georgia Southern------
8@ Louisiana Tech------
9vs Marshall------
10@ Coastal Carolina------
12@ UConn------
13vs Southern Miss------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off67thRush Off5thRed Zone Off63th3rd Down Off83thPass Def55thRush Def92thRed Zone Def74th3rd Down Def53th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.15519th-0.28183th
Red Zone+0.22463th-0.46174th
Third Down+0.67283th-0.12553th
No Garbage Time-0.03034th-0.28279th
First Half-0.12228th-0.23872th
Second Half-0.18522th-0.32686th
Early Downs-0.21712th-0.21470th
Passing Downs+0.27667th-0.11755th
Standard Downs-0.3655th-0.43492th
Goal to Go+0.15036th+1.09915th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 23.6%Rush 76.4%
Havoc/Game
21.0
Havoc Rate
33.9%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
12.0
Yards/Game
319.0
Pts/Drive
2.58
3rd Down%
55.6%
3&Out%
16.7%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Old Dominion vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOld DominionOpponents
Scoring
Points3110
Points / Game31.010.0
First Downs
Total1612
Rushing106
Passing54
Penalty12
Rushing
Attempts4240
Yards176126
Yards / Carry4.23.1
Yards / Game176.0126.0
Touchdowns21
Passing
Attempts1320
Completions914
Completion %69.2%70.0%
Yards14394
Yards / Attempt11.04.7
Touchdowns20
Interceptions11
Passer Rating197.0299.48
Total Offense
Plays5560
Yards319220
Yards / Play5.83.7
Yards / Game319.0220.0
Punt Returns
Returns42
Yards338
Average8.34.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns31
Yards8115
Average27.015.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts24
Yards90167
Average45.041.8
Interception Returns
Returns11
Yards113
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles12
Lost12
Penalties
Penalties67
Yards6544
Yards / Game65.044.0
Time of Possession
Per Game27:4132:19
Third Downs
Attempts915
Conversions54
Conversion %55.6%26.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts13
Conversions00
Conversion %0.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips53
Scores (TD + FG)52
Score %100.0%66.7%
Touchdowns41
TD %80.0%33.3%
Field Goals
Attempts11
Made11
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts41
Made41
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →