Fourth Down Data
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WIS

Wisconsin

BadgersBalanced
Big Ten Conference0-1#83 (-1.26)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

40· COverall
Offense
49· CRating
12· FPer play
15· DConsistency
4· FBig plays
Defense
33· DRating
9· FPer play
9· FConsistency
Situational
7· FRed-zone O
38· DRed-zone D
14· F3rd down O
46· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.037
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.038
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.230
Defensive EPA/play
+0.239
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.3%
Def Success Rate
55.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
13.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.469
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.44

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.07
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.32
own return game
Return Defense
+0.05
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Wisconsin ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
18th
Opp-adjusted defense
23th
Offensive EPA/play
12th
Defensive EPA/play
9th
Offensive success rate
15th
Explosiveness
4th
Defensive havoc
22th
Points per drive
26th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Wyoming2026OA -0.017 / -0.034similar: run defense, takeaway rate, rushing offense4202San Diego State2023OA -0.047 / -0.059similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, passing offense4193UL Monroe2026OA -0.032 / -0.028similar: defensive EPA, offensive EPA, takeaway rate4174Vanderbilt2021OA -0.106 / -0.066similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, defensive success rate3745Sam Houston2025OA -0.185 / -0.124similar: pass defense, havoc rate, passing offense362

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Notre Dame13-41L+20.5L46.5O
2vs Western Illinois------
3vs Eastern Michigan------
4@ Penn State------
5vs Michigan State------
7@ UCLA------
8vs USC------
9@ Iowa------
10vs Rutgers------
11@ Maryland------
12@ Purdue------
13vs Minnesota------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off4thRush Off42thRed Zone Off7th3rd Down Off15thPass Def45thRush Def4thRed Zone Def38th3rd Down Def47th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.21611th+0.2399th
Red Zone-0.6757th+0.14838th
Third Down-0.47015th-0.06347th
No Garbage Time-0.22912th+0.16115th
First Half-0.13825th-0.09147th
Second Half-0.29712th+0.6030th
Early Downs-0.00840th+0.20712th
Passing Downs-0.5574th+0.01745th
Standard Downs-0.00942th+0.3244th
Goal to Go-0th+0.49744th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 49.2%Rush 50.8%
Havoc/Game
8.0
Havoc Rate
12.7%
TO Margin
-2.0
Explosive/G
7.0
Yards/Game
284.0
Pts/Drive
1.44
3rd Down%
38.5%
3&Out%
22.2%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Wisconsin vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWisconsinOpponents
Scoring
Points1341
Points / Game13.041.0
First Downs
Total1620
Rushing58
Passing1010
Penalty12
Rushing
Attempts3132
Yards67111
Yards / Carry2.23.5
Yards / Game67.0111.0
Touchdowns02
Passing
Attempts3029
Completions1919
Completion %63.3%65.5%
Yards217239
Yards / Attempt7.28.2
Touchdowns12
Interceptions10
Passer Rating128.43157.50
Total Offense
Plays6161
Yards284350
Yards / Play4.75.7
Yards / Game284.0350.0
Punt Returns
Returns11
Yards312
Average3.012.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns32
Yards5142
Average17.021.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts53
Yards225108
Average45.036.0
Interception Returns
Returns01
Yards055
Touchdowns01
Fumbles
Fumbles11
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties64
Yards4341
Yards / Game43.041.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:2431:36
Third Downs
Attempts139
Conversions53
Conversion %38.5%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts11
Conversions11
Conversion %100.0%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips24
Scores (TD + FG)24
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns03
TD %0.0%75.0%
Field Goals
Attempts22
Made22
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts15
Made15
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →