Fourth Down Data
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NIU

Northern Illinois

HuskiesBalanced
Mountain West Conference0-1#127 (-9.86)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

8· FOverall
Offense
12· FRating
0· FPer play
0· FConsistency
0· FBig plays
Defense
17· DRating
20· DPer play
7· FConsistency
Situational
65· CRed-zone D
1· F3rd down O
46· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.089
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.010
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.785
Defensive EPA/play
+0.119
lower = better
Off Success Rate
23.6%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
0.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.904
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.48
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.03
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
-0.88
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Northern Illinois ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
4th
Opp-adjusted defense
45th
Offensive EPA/play
0th
Defensive EPA/play
20th
Offensive success rate
1th
Explosiveness
0th
Defensive havoc
14th
Points per drive
1th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1San José State2017OA -0.187 / -0.129similar: defensive EPA, rushing offense, offensive EPA4602Missouri State2026OA -0.099 / +0.017similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, passing offense4413Kansas2020OA -0.097 / -0.019similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, defensive success rate4374UConn2021OA -0.200 / -0.127similar: offensive success rate, defensive EPA, passing offense4315Rutgers2018OA -0.171 / -0.005similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate411

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Iowa0-40L+31.5L44.5U
2vs Illinois State------
3@ Arizona------
4@ Georgia State------
6vs Air Force------
7@ Wyoming------
8vs Hawai'i------
9@ UNLV------
10@ San José State------
11vs Nevada------
12@ North Dakota State------
13vs UTEP------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off11thRush Off0thRed Zone Off0th3rd Down Off1thPass Def62thRush Def58thRed Zone Def66th3rd Down Def46th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.4871th-0.15060th
Red Zone-0th-0.34566th
Third Down-1.1891th-0.04846th
No Garbage Time-0.7571th+0.06726th
First Half-0.7571th+0.06728th
Second Half-0.3208th-0.53796th
Early Downs-0.3603th+0.05125th
Passing Downs-0.37711th-0.18262th
Standard Downs-0.5710th-0.13458th
Goal to Go-0th-0.38480th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.6%Rush 56.4%
Havoc/Game
9.0
Havoc Rate
10.7%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
0.0
Yards/Game
120.0
Pts/Drive
0.00
3rd Down%
20.0%
3&Out%
83.3%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Northern Illinois vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorthern IllinoisOpponents
Scoring
Points040
Points / Game0.040.0
First Downs
Total726
Rushing113
Passing511
Penalty12
Rushing
Attempts3138
Yards7289
Yards / Carry0.27.6
Yards / Game7.0289.0
Touchdowns02
Passing
Attempts2440
Completions1321
Completion %54.2%52.5%
Yards113218
Yards / Attempt4.75.5
Touchdowns02
Interceptions11
Passer Rating85.38109.78
Total Offense
Plays5578
Yards120507
Yards / Play2.26.5
Yards / Game120.0507.0
Punt Returns
Returns05
Yards0124
Average—24.8
Touchdowns01
Kickoff Returns
Returns30
Yards350
Average11.7—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts113
Yards460131
Average41.843.7
Interception Returns
Returns11
Yards017
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles10
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties77
Yards6160
Yards / Game61.060.0
Time of Possession
Per Game26:0933:51
Third Downs
Attempts1514
Conversions36
Conversion %20.0%42.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts03
Conversions00
Conversion %—0.0%
Red Zone
Trips05
Scores (TD + FG)03
Score %—60.0%
Touchdowns02
TD %—40.0%
Field Goals
Attempts03
Made02
Pct—66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts05
Made04
Pct—80.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →