Fourth Down Data
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CAL

California

Golden BearsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference0-1#132 (-12.30)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

4· FOverall
Offense
19· DRating
31· DPer play
12· FConsistency
48· CBig plays
Defense
3· FRating
4· FPer play
17· DConsistency
Situational
62· CRed-zone O
36· DRed-zone D
85· B3rd down O
9· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.027
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.113
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.048
Defensive EPA/play
+0.349
lower = better
Off Success Rate
37.9%
Def Success Rate
51.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
33.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.397
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.71

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.67
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.05
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.35
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.13
own return game
Return Defense
-0.13
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where California ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
26th
Opp-adjusted defense
3th
Offensive EPA/play
31th
Defensive EPA/play
4th
Offensive success rate
13th
Explosiveness
48th
Defensive havoc
50th
Points per drive
30th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Rice2021OA -0.045 / -0.110similar: passing offense, rushing offense, defensive success rate3402Arkansas State2021OA -0.102 / -0.143similar: offensive EPA, takeaway rate, passing offense3283Bowling Green2018OA -0.008 / -0.193similar: offensive EPA, defensive EPA, run defense3284Oklahoma State2024OA +0.003 / -0.056similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3275Colorado2025OA -0.044 / -0.049similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, offensive success rate326

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UCLA24-45L+2.5L53.5O
2@ Syracuse------
3vs Wagner------
4vs Clemson------
5@ UNLV------
6vs Virginia Tech------
7vs Wake Forest------
8@ SMU------
9@ NC State------
11@ Virginia------
12vs Stanford------
13vs Pittsburgh------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off53thRush Off24thRed Zone Off62th3rd Down Off85thPass Def80thRush Def0thRed Zone Def37th3rd Down Def9th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04832th+0.3494th
Red Zone+0.19362th+0.15237th
Third Down+0.74685th+0.5739th
No Garbage Time-0.04431th+0.3583th
First Half+0.03947th+0.3664th
Second Half-0.12928th+0.32613th
Early Downs-0.10328th+0.3902th
Passing Downs+0.05853th-0.34580th
Standard Downs-0.12624th+0.5700th
Goal to Go+0.19339th+1.9155th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.0%Rush 46.0%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
19.3%
TO Margin
-2.0
Explosive/G
20.0
Yards/Game
410.0
Pts/Drive
1.71
3rd Down%
52.4%
3&Out%
14.3%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — California vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCaliforniaOpponents
Scoring
Points2445
Points / Game24.045.0
First Downs
Total2320
Rushing610
Passing137
Penalty43
Rushing
Attempts4032
Yards119277
Yards / Carry3.08.7
Yards / Game119.0277.0
Touchdowns16
Passing
Attempts4722
Completions2614
Completion %55.3%63.6%
Yards291184
Yards / Attempt6.28.4
Touchdowns20
Interceptions21
Passer Rating112.86124.80
Total Offense
Plays8754
Yards410461
Yards / Play4.78.5
Yards / Game410.0461.0
Punt Returns
Returns11
Yards312
Average3.012.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns22
Yards3856
Average19.028.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts35
Yards138215
Average46.043.0
Interception Returns
Returns12
Yards019
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles21
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties612
Yards59110
Yards / Game59.0110.0
Time of Possession
Per Game34:4925:11
Third Downs
Attempts2111
Conversions116
Conversion %52.4%54.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts30
Conversions00
Conversion %0.0%—
Red Zone
Trips45
Scores (TD + FG)44
Score %100.0%80.0%
Touchdowns33
TD %75.0%60.0%
Field Goals
Attempts11
Made11
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts36
Made36
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →