Fourth Down Data
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NU

Northwestern

WildcatsBalanced
Big Ten Conference1-0#129 (-10.20)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

7· FOverall
Offense
17· DRating
75· BPer play
51· CConsistency
80· BBig plays
Defense
12· FRating
33· DPer play
44· CConsistency
Situational
90· A-Red-zone O
67· CRed-zone D
42· C3rd down O
34· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.021
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.125
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.229
Defensive EPA/play
+0.022
lower = better
Off Success Rate
49.1%
Def Success Rate
43.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.207
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.09

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.11
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.58
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.21
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.25
own return game
Return Defense
-0.08
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Northwestern ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
64th
Opp-adjusted defense
2th
Offensive EPA/play
76th
Defensive EPA/play
33th
Offensive success rate
53th
Explosiveness
81th
Defensive havoc
56th
Points per drive
54th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oregon2026OA +0.017 / -0.041similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, turnover rate3732Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, turnover rate3663Texas2022OA +0.125 / +0.064similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3644Louisville2021OA +0.077 / +0.021similar: turnover rate, havoc rate, passing offense3635TCU2022OA +0.134 / +0.023similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate351

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs South Dakota State34-18W-14.0W49.5O
3vs Colorado------
4@ Indiana------
5vs Penn State------
6vs Ball State------
7@ Michigan State------
8vs Rutgers------
9@ Oregon------
10vs Iowa------
11@ Ohio State------
12@ Minnesota------
13vs Illinois------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off37thRush Off97thRed Zone Off91th3rd Down Off42thPass Def42thRush Def31thRed Zone Def67th3rd Down Def34th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.22985th+0.02232th
Red Zone+0.62491th-0.36967th
Third Down-0.00342th+0.09134th
No Garbage Time+0.22976th+0.02234th
First Half-0.09331th-0.18159th
Second Half+0.56299th+0.15027th
Early Downs+0.42999th-0.06747th
Passing Downs-0.06837th+0.02542th
Standard Downs+0.39897th+0.02131th
Goal to Go+1.00793th-0.55888th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.6%Rush 56.4%
Havoc/Game
19.0
Havoc Rate
21.1%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
497.0
Pts/Drive
3.09
3rd Down%
41.7%
3&Out%
9.1%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Northwestern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorthwesternOpponents
Scoring
Points3418
Points / Game34.018.0
First Downs
Total1927
Rushing711
Passing1214
Penalty02
Rushing
Attempts3140
Yards224147
Yards / Carry7.23.7
Yards / Game224.0147.0
Touchdowns31
Passing
Attempts2448
Completions1423
Completion %58.3%47.9%
Yards273285
Yards / Attempt11.45.9
Touchdowns10
Interceptions01
Passer Rating167.6393.63
Total Offense
Plays5588
Yards497432
Yards / Play9.04.9
Yards / Game497.0432.0
Punt Returns
Returns10
Yards50
Average5.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns22
Yards3149
Average15.524.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts53
Yards120119
Average24.039.7
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards40
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles00
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties96
Yards6145
Yards / Game61.045.0
Time of Possession
Per Game25:5234:08
Third Downs
Attempts1220
Conversions58
Conversion %41.7%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts03
Conversions03
Conversion %—100.0%
Red Zone
Trips57
Scores (TD + FG)55
Score %100.0%71.4%
Touchdowns31
TD %60.0%14.3%
Field Goals
Attempts25
Made24
Pct100.0%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts40
Made40
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →