Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
The Recap
Week 4, 2026 — the week in review
Week 4 · 71 games · 21 one-score finishes · 11 upsets · 5 weather-affected
What was rare
This week’s games that stand out in nine seasons of college football — every dimension where a game ranked among the rarest we track. Full context lives on the How Rare page.
Market facts are being regenerated and will return shortly.
#14Virginia Tech beat Boston College 21-14 in 24.12 mph wind -- the windiest game of the 2026 season.#48UTSA 59, Colorado State 45: 104 combined points -- the highest-scoring game of the 2026 season.#1410Minnesota beat Washington 27-24 in 53F -- the coldest game of the 2026 season.#1882Clemson beat California 24-10 in 57F -- the coldest game of the 2026 season.
Best single-game performances — offense
Non-garbage-time EPA per play.
North Texas
vs Houston Christian
+0.726
EPA/play
North Texas averaged +0.726 EPA per play against Houston Christian on a 81.3% success rate.
Share →Texas State
vs Incarnate Word
+0.537
EPA/play
Texas State averaged +0.537 EPA per play against Incarnate Word on a 53.8% success rate.
Share →Notre Dame
at Purdue
+0.534
EPA/play
Notre Dame averaged +0.534 EPA per play against Purdue on a 71.0% success rate.
Share →Best single-game performances — defense
Non-garbage-time EPA per play. Defensive EPA is credited to the defense — higher is better.
Louisiana
at Charlotte
+0.788
EPA/play
Louisiana's defense produced +0.788 EPA per play against Charlotte (72.7% success rate).
Share →Georgia
vs Oklahoma
+0.655
EPA/play
Georgia's defense produced +0.655 EPA per play against Oklahoma (64.7% success rate).
Share →East Carolina
vs North Carolina Central
+0.647
EPA/play
East Carolina's defense produced +0.647 EPA per play against North Carolina Central (75.0% success rate).
Share →Every game, and what it looked like before
Final scores for the week, each with the two past games whose team profiles most resembled this matchup — the same engine that powers The Archive. Descriptive resemblance, nothing more.
Closest comps: 2023 Old Dominion 28-21 App State · 2021 Florida Atlantic 28-25 UTEP
Closest comps: 2017 Miami (OH) 24-27 Eastern Michigan · 2023 BYU 14-0 Sam Houston
Closest comps: 2023 Georgia 52-17 Ole Miss · 2024 Oregon 38-9 Illinois
Closest comps: 2019 Coastal Carolina 21-31 Georgia State · 2022 South Florida 21-50 BYU
Closest comps: 2017 Temple 34-26 Navy · 2017 Kentucky 40-34 Missouri
Closest comps: 2023 California 40-52 Oregon State · 2018 Arkansas State 9-35 App State
Closest comps: 2019 Fresno State 56-27 UNLV · 2019 Fresno State 28-35 Nevada
Closest comps: 2019 Ohio State 73-14 Maryland · 2023 SMU 34-16 Charlotte
Closest comps: 2019 UL Monroe 45-31 Georgia State · 2019 Florida International 48-23 Charlotte
Closest comps: 2022 Southern Miss 27-29 Liberty · 2017 UTSA 9-7 Marshall
Closest comps: 2017 Arkansas 39-38 Coastal Carolina · 2021 Texas 70-35 Texas Tech
Closest comps: 2017 Boise State 23-42 Virginia · 2025 Houston 35-45 West Virginia
Closest comps: 2022 Florida International 7-52 Florida Atlantic · 2025 Louisiana 10-22 Southern Miss
Closest comps: 2018 San José State 30-42 Colorado State · 2024 San Diego State 27-24 Hawai'i
Closest comps: 2022 Baylor 3-31 Kansas State · 2021 Kansas State 38-17 Nevada
Closest comps: 2021 Texas State 27-19 UL Monroe · 2020 Kansas State 55-14 Kansas
Closest comps: 2024 South Florida 3-21 Memphis · 2018 Miami (OH) 30-28 Ohio
Closest comps: 2019 UNLV 13-38 Boise State · 2024 Wisconsin 13-16 Oregon
Closest comps: 2022 UTSA 31-27 North Texas · 2022 UTSA 48-27 North Texas
Closest comps: 2017 Iowa 15-24 Purdue · 2020 Penn State 21-41 Iowa
Closest comps: 2017 Florida 36-7 UAB · 2022 Virginia 7-37 Pittsburgh
Closest comps: 2021 BYU 26-17 Utah · 2021 Oregon State 42-34 Utah
Closest comps: 2019 Old Dominion 3-41 Florida Atlantic · 2018 New Mexico State 31-48 Georgia Southern
Closest comps: 2018 Arizona 40-41 Arizona State · 2021 TCU 34-32 California
Closest comps: 2017 South Carolina 28-20 Florida · 2023 Arkansas 10-48 Auburn
Closest comps: 2017 SMU 54-32 North Texas · 2017 Memphis 48-45 UCLA
Closest comps: 2019 Oklahoma State 27-45 Baylor · 2018 Alabama 57-7 Arkansas State
Closest comps: 2024 UCLA 13-42 Indiana · 2024 UCLA 13-34 Oregon
Closest comps: 2019 Marshall 30-27 Florida International · 2020 Texas Tech 24-23 Baylor
Closest comps: 2024 Wyoming 24-27 San Diego State · 2022 Colorado State 17-13 Hawai'i
Closest comps: 2024 Hawai'i 27-29 UNLV · 2024 Georgia Southern 28-14 James Madison
Closest comps: 2020 Louisville 30-0 Syracuse · 2025 Ohio 48-21 Northern Illinois
Closest comps: 2025 Rutgers 10-56 Oregon · 2017 Colorado 10-37 Washington
Closest comps: 2018 Virginia Tech 23-45 Notre Dame · 2021 Michigan State 23-20 Nebraska
Closest comps: 2017 Penn State 42-13 Michigan · 2023 Oregon State 21-7 Utah
Closest comps: 2018 San José State 41-44 Hawai'i · 2021 Kansas 28-34 West Virginia
Closest comps: 2022 SMU 34-42 TCU · 2020 Florida 46-52 Alabama
Closest comps: 2021 East Carolina 29-14 South Florida · 2022 Western Kentucky 45-10 Rice
Closest comps: 2021 App State 31-7 South Alabama · 2017 Wisconsin 38-14 Iowa
Closest comps: 2021 Nebraska 56-7 Northwestern · 2023 South Alabama 59-10 Eastern Michigan
Closest comps: 2018 Arizona State 31-28 UCLA · 2019 UL Monroe 41-48 Arkansas State
Closest comps: 2019 Boise State 14-7 Marshall · 2024 Iowa State 34-17 Cincinnati
Closest comps: 2019 Bowling Green 7-35 Louisiana Tech · 2020 Kansas 22-52 Iowa State
Closest comps: 2025 Michigan State 10-28 Penn State · 2025 Michigan State 20-31 Michigan
Closest comps: 2022 Indiana 16-30 Purdue · 2019 Vanderbilt 10-34 UNLV
Closest comps: 2024 Texas State 44-52 Georgia State · 2019 USC 52-35 UCLA
Closest comps: 2021 UConn 13-44 Middle Tennessee · 2022 Northwestern 7-42 Wisconsin
Closest comps: 2025 Old Dominion 47-7 Coastal Carolina · 2025 Old Dominion 33-0 Troy
Closest comps: 2024 Iowa 13-10 Nebraska · 2021 Baylor 45-20 West Virginia
Closest comps: 2023 Tennessee 20-13 Texas A&M · 2019 Georgia 27-0 Missouri
Closest comps: 2022 Virginia 7-37 Pittsburgh · 2021 New Mexico 7-36 Colorado State
Closest comps: 2022 Stanford 14-52 Washington State · 2021 Arizona 10-3 California
Closest comps: 2026 Kennesaw State 17-31 Georgia State · 2022 West Virginia 31-41 TCU
Closest comps: 2023 Mississippi State 31-24 Arizona · 2023 Duke 14-21 Notre Dame
Closest comps: 2026 Auburn 17-16 Baylor · 2023 California 10-14 Auburn
Closest comps: 2020 Temple 23-47 SMU · 2020 East Carolina 52-38 SMU
Closest comps: 2018 Texas 23-17 Baylor · 2025 NC State 48-36 Georgia Tech
Closest comps: 2025 Virginia 22-20 Washington State · 2024 Bowling Green 12-28 Miami (OH)
Against the pre-game line
How the week's results landed relative to the pre-game consensus spread and total. Descriptive only — every FBS game since 2017 is available on the Betting page.
39 of 6857.4%
favorites covered
1
pushes
32 of 6847.1%
overs
11.62points
avg. miss vs. the number
Furthest above the spread
| Favorite | Opponent | Spread | Margin | vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UCLA | Maryland | -2.5 | +51.0 | +48.5 |
| Massachusetts | Sacramento State | -4.5 | +29.0 | +24.5 |
| Texas State | Incarnate Word | -30.5 | +53.0 | +22.5 |
| Toledo | San Diego State | -2.5 | +25.0 | +22.5 |
| Arkansas | Tulsa | -7.0 | +28.0 | +21.0 |
Furthest below the spread
| Favorite | Opponent | Spread | Margin | vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Buffalo | Robert Morris | -28.0 | +3.0 | -25.0 |
| Marshall | Gardner-Webb | -24.5 | +1.0 | -23.5 |
| SMU | Missouri State | -30.5 | +10.0 | -20.5 |
| Florida International | Long Island University | -37.5 | +17.0 | -20.5 |
| Florida State | Central Arkansas | -46.5 | +27.0 | -19.5 |