Fourth Down Data
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NMSU

New Mexico State

AggiesBalanced
Conference USA1-1#123 (-7.73)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

11· FOverall
Offense
33· DRating
52· CPer play
48· CConsistency
34· DBig plays
Defense
11· FRating
30· DPer play
28· DConsistency
Situational
18· DRed-zone O
35· DRed-zone D
94· A3rd down O
13· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.054
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.077
Defensive EPA/play
+0.042
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.4%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
30.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.035
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.001
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.53

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.58
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.24
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.04
own return game
Return Defense
-0.12
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where New Mexico State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
49th
Opp-adjusted defense
12th
Offensive EPA/play
53th
Defensive EPA/play
30th
Offensive success rate
58th
Explosiveness
34th
Defensive havoc
38th
Points per drive
46th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: rushing offense, run defense, defensive EPA3572Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: defensive EPA, run defense, offensive success rate3443Nevada2017OA +0.009 / -0.079similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3414Wake Forest2026OA +0.029 / +0.010similar: turnover rate, run defense, havoc rate3405Kennesaw State2025OA +0.044 / -0.084similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate339

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Florida State17-34L+31.5W53.5U
1vs Mercyhurst51-14W-29.3W52.5O
2@ Hawai'i------
4vs New Mexico------
5vs Western Kentucky------
6@ Florida International------
8@ Sam Houston------
9vs Jacksonville State------
10vs Liberty------
11@ Missouri State------
12vs Delaware------
13@ Middle Tennessee------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-1
50.0%
Straight Up
1-1
50.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off71thRush Off51thRed Zone Off18th3rd Down Off95thPass Def31thRush Def50thRed Zone Def36th3rd Down Def13th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.15070th+0.00637th
Red Zone-0.31918th+0.15836th
Third Down+1.03495th+0.52013th
No Garbage Time+0.07755th+0.04231th
First Half-0.01639th+0.06428th
Second Half+0.28583th-0.06950th
Early Downs+0.07963th-0.18066th
Passing Downs+0.32771th+0.17031th
Standard Downs+0.05151th-0.10550th
Goal to Go+0.54170th+0.37451th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.4%Rush 49.6%
Havoc/Game
10.5
Havoc Rate
16.4%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
12.5
Yards/Game
436.5
Pts/Drive
2.53
3rd Down%
56.7%
3&Out%
21.1%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 2 games — New Mexico State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNew Mexico StateOpponents
Scoring
Points6848
Points / Game34.024.0
First Downs
Total3834
Rushing1414
Passing2217
Penalty23
Rushing
Attempts6566
Yards283287
Yards / Carry4.44.3
Yards / Game141.5143.5
Touchdowns34
Passing
Attempts6658
Completions4033
Completion %60.6%56.9%
Yards590369
Yards / Attempt8.96.4
Touchdowns52
Interceptions13
Passer Rating157.67111.37
Total Offense
Plays131124
Yards873656
Yards / Play6.75.3
Yards / Game436.5328.0
Punt Returns
Returns20
Yards-30
Average-1.5—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns28
Yards72193
Average36.024.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts58
Yards204358
Average40.844.8
Interception Returns
Returns31
Yards300
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles01
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties1713
Yards140119
Yards / Game70.059.5
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5131:07
Third Downs
Attempts3027
Conversions1713
Conversion %56.7%48.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts42
Conversions21
Conversion %50.0%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips58
Scores (TD + FG)48
Score %80.0%100.0%
Touchdowns36
TD %60.0%75.0%
Field Goals
Attempts43
Made22
Pct50.0%66.7%
PAT Kicking
Attempts96
Made86
Pct88.9%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →