Fourth Down Data
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SHSU

Sam Houston

BearkatsPass-Heavy
Conference USA0-1#48 (+4.13)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

65· COverall
Offense
58· CRating
33· DPer play
48· CConsistency
61· CBig plays
Defense
75· BRating
40· CPer play
62· CConsistency
Situational
98· A+Red-zone O
30· DRed-zone D
72· B3rd down O
57· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.018
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.019
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.025
Defensive EPA/play
-0.024
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.6%
Def Success Rate
39.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.001
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.75

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.42
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.03
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.34
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.16
own return game
Return Defense
+0.06
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Sam Houston ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
61th
Opp-adjusted defense
63th
Offensive EPA/play
34th
Defensive EPA/play
40th
Offensive success rate
51th
Explosiveness
61th
Defensive havoc
80th
Points per drive
31th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1LSU2021OA -0.022 / +0.029similar: turnover rate, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3812California2025OA -0.011 / -0.044similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3743Massachusetts2017OA -0.010 / -0.085similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3624Texas A&M2017OA -0.004 / +0.039similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3605Virginia2019OA +0.029 / +0.008similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, run defense353

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Troy21-24L+16.5W53.5U
2vs Tulsa------
3vs Nicholls State------
4@ Texas Tech------
6@ Liberty------
7vs Western Kentucky------
8vs New Mexico State------
9@ Missouri State------
10@ Jacksonville State------
11vs Kennesaw State------
12vs Middle Tennessee------
13@ Florida International------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off80thRush Off15thRed Zone Off99th3rd Down Off72thPass Def40thRush Def44thRed Zone Def30th3rd Down Def58th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.02536th-0.02442th
Red Zone+1.06699th+0.29530th
Third Down+0.45772th-0.16358th
No Garbage Time-0.02534th-0.02442th
First Half+0.20372th+0.10622th
Second Half-0.23916th-0.22269th
Early Downs-0.10726th-0.18666th
Passing Downs+0.39580th+0.03540th
Standard Downs-0.23015th-0.07044th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 65.7%Rush 34.3%
Havoc/Game
19.0
Havoc Rate
27.1%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
373.0
Pts/Drive
1.75
3rd Down%
42.9%
3&Out%
16.7%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Sam Houston vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSam HoustonOpponents
Scoring
Points2124
Points / Game21.024.0
First Downs
Total2218
Rushing59
Passing158
Penalty21
Rushing
Attempts2442
Yards38177
Yards / Carry1.64.2
Yards / Game38.0177.0
Touchdowns00
Passing
Attempts4624
Completions3012
Completion %65.2%50.0%
Yards335165
Yards / Attempt7.36.9
Touchdowns33
Interceptions10
Passer Rating143.57149.00
Total Offense
Plays7066
Yards373342
Yards / Play5.35.2
Yards / Game373.0342.0
Punt Returns
Returns20
Yards110
Average5.5—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns22
Yards1544
Average7.522.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts78
Yards288375
Average41.146.9
Interception Returns
Returns01
Yards018
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles01
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties66
Yards3555
Yards / Game35.055.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5129:09
Third Downs
Attempts1415
Conversions66
Conversion %42.9%40.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts10
Conversions00
Conversion %0.0%—
Red Zone
Trips23
Scores (TD + FG)23
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns22
TD %100.0%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts01
Made01
Pct—100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts33
Made33
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →