Fourth Down Data
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TEX

Texas

LonghornsBalanced
Southeastern Conference1-0#20 (+7.19)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

85· BOverall
Offense
90· A-Rating
78· BPer play
64· CConsistency
50· CBig plays
Defense
54· CRating
28· DPer play
43· CConsistency
Situational
65· CRed-zone O
63· CRed-zone D
95· A3rd down O
8· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.032
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.028
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.236
Defensive EPA/play
+0.048
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.3%
Def Success Rate
42.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
29.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.188
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
5.60

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.45
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.46
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.15
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#20
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 6 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
75th
Opp-adjusted defense
30th
Offensive EPA/play
79th
Defensive EPA/play
28th
Offensive success rate
74th
Explosiveness
50th
Defensive havoc
61th
Points per drive
91th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1TCU2025OA +0.044 / -0.003similar: offensive success rate, run defense, offensive EPA4272West Virginia2018OA +0.080 / -0.015similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3733Texas State2024OA +0.027 / -0.004similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, TD drive rate3704Florida2020OA +0.063 / -0.013similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, TD drive rate3515Oklahoma State2017OA +0.215 / +0.003similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, pass defense345

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Texas State59-7W-29.5W59.5O
2vs Ohio State------
3vs UTSA------
4@ Tennessee------
6@ Oklahoma------
7vs Florida------
8vs Ole Miss------
9vs Mississippi State------
10@ Missouri------
11@ LSU------
12vs Arkansas------
13@ Texas A&M------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off82thRush Off53thRed Zone Off65th3rd Down Off96thPass Def9thRush Def70thRed Zone Def63th3rd Down Def8th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.20579th-0.04747th
Red Zone+0.27965th-0.28563th
Third Down+1.04296th+0.6418th
No Garbage Time+0.23679th+0.04829th
First Half+0.18870th+0.04831th
Second Half+0.22477th-0.15361th
Early Downs-0.16020th-0.30182th
Passing Downs+0.44182th+0.5149th
Standard Downs+0.05753th-0.24170th
Goal to Go-0.38815th-0.28573th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 48.6%Rush 51.4%
Havoc/Game
16.0
Havoc Rate
22.5%
TO Margin
+2.0
Explosive/G
10.0
Yards/Game
516.0
Pts/Drive
5.60
3rd Down%
73.3%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTexasOpponents
Scoring
Points597
Points / Game59.07.0
First Downs
Total2618
Rushing78
Passing189
Penalty11
Rushing
Attempts3641
Yards156161
Yards / Carry4.33.9
Yards / Game156.0161.0
Touchdowns31
Passing
Attempts3429
Completions2620
Completion %76.5%69.0%
Yards360188
Yards / Attempt10.66.5
Touchdowns40
Interceptions11
Passer Rating198.35116.52
Total Offense
Plays7070
Yards516349
Yards / Play7.45.0
Yards / Game516.0349.0
Punt Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Average——
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns14
Yards981
Average9.020.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts01
Yards017
Average—17.0
Interception Returns
Returns11
Yards-50
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles03
Lost02
Penalties
Penalties43
Yards3530
Yards / Game35.030.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:3430:26
Third Downs
Attempts1514
Conversions118
Conversion %73.3%57.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts23
Conversions21
Conversion %100.0%33.3%
Red Zone
Trips73
Scores (TD + FG)61
Score %85.7%33.3%
Touchdowns61
TD %85.7%33.3%
Field Goals
Attempts12
Made10
Pct100.0%0.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts81
Made81
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →