Fourth Down Data
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GAST

Georgia State

PanthersBalanced
Sun Belt Conference1-0#40 (+4.95)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

71· BOverall
Offense
85· BRating
95· APer play
89· BConsistency
95· ABig plays
Defense
38· DRating
59· CPer play
92· A-Consistency
Situational
46· CRed-zone O
85· BRed-zone D
64· C3rd down O
50· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.063
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.429
Defensive EPA/play
-0.172
lower = better
Off Success Rate
56.3%
Def Success Rate
28.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
32.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.601
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
5.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.58
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
-0.23
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Georgia State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
92th
Opp-adjusted defense
38th
Offensive EPA/play
96th
Defensive EPA/play
60th
Offensive success rate
82th
Explosiveness
96th
Defensive havoc
85th
Points per drive
95th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kansas2026OA +0.033 / +0.069similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, turnover rate3662Alabama2020OA +0.144 / +0.007similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3593LSU2022OA +0.112 / +0.084similar: rushing offense, defensive EPA, turnover rate3574Alabama2022OA +0.176 / +0.135similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3495Utah2021OA +0.113 / +0.060similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, havoc rate344

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs North Carolina A&T59-10W-28.0W60.75O
2@ Kennesaw State------
3@ UCF------
4vs Northern Illinois------
5vs Old Dominion------
7@ James Madison------
8@ Arkansas State------
9vs Coastal Carolina------
10@ App State------
11vs Georgia Southern------
12@ Marshall------
13vs Louisiana------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off84thRush Off72thRed Zone Off46th3rd Down Off64thPass Def68thRush Def45thRed Zone Def86th3rd Down Def50th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.21481th-0.14558th
Red Zone+0.02846th-0.75786th
Third Down+0.25164th-0.11450th
No Garbage Time+0.42997th-0.17260th
First Half+0.42997th-0.17258th
Second Half-0.06436th-0.11554th
Early Downs+0.17877th-0.17465th
Passing Downs+0.47384th-0.21668th
Standard Downs+0.13272th-0.08245th
Goal to Go-0.26921th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.5%Rush 53.5%
Havoc/Game
-
Havoc Rate
30.2%
TO Margin
-
Explosive/G
-
Yards/Game
-
Pts/Drive
5.83
3rd Down%
-
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Georgia State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia StateOpponents
Scoring
Points5910
Points / Game59.010.0
First Downs
Total2810
Rushing146
Passing114
Penalty30
Rushing
Attempts3830
Yards28484
Yards / Carry7.52.8
Yards / Game284.084.0
Touchdowns60
Passing
Attempts3323
Completions2511
Completion %75.8%47.8%
Yards279125
Yards / Attempt8.55.4
Touchdowns21
Interceptions00
Passer Rating166.78107.83
Total Offense
Plays7153
Yards563209
Yards / Play7.93.9
Yards / Game563.0209.0
Punt Returns
Returns30
Yards270
Average9.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns23
Yards8093
Average40.031.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts29
Yards90273
Average45.030.3
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles00
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties59
Yards5090
Yards / Game50.090.0
Time of Possession
Per Game32:4627:14
Third Downs
Attempts1214
Conversions74
Conversion %58.3%28.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts10
Conversions10
Conversion %100.0%—
Red Zone
Trips81
Scores (TD + FG)71
Score %87.5%100.0%
Touchdowns60
TD %75.0%0.0%
Field Goals
Attempts11
Made11
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts81
Made81
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →