Fourth Down Data
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HOU

Houston

CougarsBalanced
Big 12 Conference1-0#81 (-0.83)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

41· COverall
Offense
50· CRating
56· CPer play
66· CConsistency
56· CBig plays
Defense
35· DRating
27· DPer play
32· DConsistency
Situational
8· FRed-zone O
10· FRed-zone D
77· B3rd down O
33· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.042
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.099
Defensive EPA/play
+0.058
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.2%
Def Success Rate
45.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
20.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.041
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.09

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.09
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.19
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.01
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.11
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Houston ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
53th
Opp-adjusted defense
19th
Offensive EPA/play
56th
Defensive EPA/play
28th
Offensive success rate
73th
Explosiveness
56th
Defensive havoc
69th
Points per drive
54th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Kansas2025OA +0.147 / -0.040similar: takeaway rate, havoc rate, offensive success rate3572UL Monroe2018OA +0.035 / -0.075similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, havoc rate3573Ole Miss2022OA +0.160 / -0.039similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, offensive success rate3564Auburn2024OA -0.000 / +0.003similar: turnover rate, pass defense, rushing offense3565Cincinnati2024OA +0.013 / -0.011similar: pass defense, TD drive rate, offensive success rate335

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Oregon State33-20W-21.0L50.5O
2vs Southern------
3@ Texas Tech------
4@ Georgia Southern------
5vs UCF------
6@ Kansas State------
7vs Oklahoma State------
8@ Utah------
10vs Cincinnati------
11@ Colorado------
12@ West Virginia------
13vs Baylor------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off58thRush Off55thRed Zone Off8th3rd Down Off77thPass Def41thRush Def23thRed Zone Def10th3rd Down Def33th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.09962th+0.05828th
Red Zone-0.6558th+0.78210th
Third Down+0.54777th+0.12733th
No Garbage Time+0.09959th+0.05828th
First Half+0.04548th-0.12351th
Second Half+0.17169th+0.23416th
Early Downs-0.01739th+0.06323th
Passing Downs+0.15058th+0.03441th
Standard Downs+0.07455th+0.07623th
Goal to Go+0.34954th+0.82324th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.1%Rush 56.9%
Havoc/Game
18.0
Havoc Rate
24.3%
TO Margin
-2.0
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
533.0
Pts/Drive
3.09
3rd Down%
53.8%
3&Out%
9.1%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Houston vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatHoustonOpponents
Scoring
Points3320
Points / Game33.020.0
First Downs
Total2420
Rushing102
Passing1217
Penalty21
Rushing
Attempts4125
Yards22826
Yards / Carry5.61.0
Yards / Game228.026.0
Touchdowns32
Passing
Attempts3148
Completions2029
Completion %64.5%60.4%
Yards305376
Yards / Attempt9.87.8
Touchdowns11
Interceptions10
Passer Rating151.35133.09
Total Offense
Plays7273
Yards533402
Yards / Play7.45.5
Yards / Game533.0402.0
Punt Returns
Returns10
Yards00
Average0.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns14
Yards2473
Average24.018.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts34
Yards127191
Average42.347.8
Interception Returns
Returns01
Yards024
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles22
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties105
Yards6542
Yards / Game65.042.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:5029:10
Third Downs
Attempts1315
Conversions74
Conversion %53.8%26.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts15
Conversions12
Conversion %100.0%40.0%
Red Zone
Trips53
Scores (TD + FG)43
Score %80.0%100.0%
Touchdowns23
TD %40.0%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts21
Made20
Pct100.0%0.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts42
Made32
Pct75.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →