Fourth Down Data
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ARK

Arkansas

RazorbacksRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference1-0#125 (-9.13)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

9· FOverall
Offense
3· FRating
22· DPer play
55· CConsistency
23· DBig plays
Defense
27· DRating
77· BPer play
79· BConsistency
Situational
46· CRed-zone O
59· CRed-zone D
65· C3rd down O
86· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.082
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.014
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.113
Defensive EPA/play
-0.293
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.0%
Def Success Rate
31.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.180
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.38

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.05
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.12
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.10
own return game
Return Defense
+0.01
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Arkansas ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
5th
Opp-adjusted defense
60th
Offensive EPA/play
23th
Defensive EPA/play
78th
Offensive success rate
55th
Explosiveness
23th
Defensive havoc
73th
Points per drive
44th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Eastern Michigan2017OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3632Penn State2020OA -0.009 / +0.011similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, havoc rate3253Toledo2022OA -0.078 / +0.060similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3244Marshall2017OA -0.030 / +0.016similar: turnover rate, run defense, havoc rate3225Marshall2023OA -0.105 / +0.027similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, run defense320

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs North Alabama31-14W-40.5L63U
2@ Utah------
3vs Georgia------
4vs Tulsa------
5@ Texas A&M------
6vs Tennessee------
7@ Vanderbilt------
9vs Missouri------
10@ Auburn------
11vs South Carolina------
12@ Texas------
13vs LSU------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off39thRush Off22thRed Zone Off47th3rd Down Off66thPass Def84thRush Def68thRed Zone Def59th3rd Down Def87th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.11323th-0.29384th
Red Zone+0.04147th-0.24859th
Third Down+0.30566th-0.71287th
No Garbage Time-0.11323th-0.49792th
First Half-0.2959th-0.82899th
Second Half+0.09656th+0.34912th
Early Downs-0.13023th-0.22572th
Passing Downs-0.05739th-0.39384th
Standard Downs-0.14022th-0.21768th
Goal to Go+0.32649th+0.70129th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 41.7%Rush 58.3%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
25.5%
TO Margin
-2.0
Explosive/G
16.0
Yards/Game
415.0
Pts/Drive
2.38
3rd Down%
58.8%
3&Out%
7.7%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Arkansas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArkansasOpponents
Scoring
Points3114
Points / Game31.014.0
First Downs
Total297
Rushing121
Passing143
Penalty33
Rushing
Attempts4920
Yards14840
Yards / Carry3.02.0
Yards / Game148.040.0
Touchdowns12
Passing
Attempts3524
Completions2412
Completion %68.6%50.0%
Yards267113
Yards / Attempt7.64.7
Touchdowns30
Interceptions10
Passer Rating155.2289.55
Total Offense
Plays8444
Yards415153
Yards / Play4.93.5
Yards / Game415.0153.0
Punt Returns
Returns21
Yards283
Average14.03.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Average
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts39
Yards144374
Average48.041.6
Interception Returns
Returns01
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles21
Lost21
Penalties
Penalties89
Yards7479
Yards / Game74.079.0
Time of Possession
Per Game41:2518:35
Third Downs
Attempts1710
Conversions101
Conversion %58.8%10.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts20
Conversions10
Conversion %50.0%
Red Zone
Trips63
Scores (TD + FG)52
Score %83.3%66.7%
Touchdowns42
TD %66.7%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts10
Made10
Pct100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts42
Made42
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →