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WKU
Western Kentucky
HilltoppersBalancedConference USA0-1#109 (-5.56)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
21· DOverall
Offense
28· DRating
22· DPer play
22· DConsistency
59· CBig plays
Defense
24· DRating
8· FPer play
7· FConsistency
Situational
43· CRed-zone O
20· DRed-zone D
25· D3rd down O
18· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.011
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.038
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.127
Defensive EPA/play
+0.268
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.1%
Def Success Rate
55.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
31.7%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.395
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.78
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.35
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.21
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.08
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns
Peer Context
Where Western Kentucky ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense35th
Opp-adjusted defense23th
Offensive EPA/play22th
Defensive EPA/play8th
Offensive success rate36th
Explosiveness60th
Defensive havoc3th
Points per drive10th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1South Florida2020OA -0.047 / -0.026similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, passing offense4182UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3813UNLV2020OA -0.027 / -0.044similar: defensive EPA, run defense, passing offense3644Middle Tennessee2020OA -0.016 / -0.033similar: takeaway rate, passing offense, turnover rate3645South Florida2021OA -0.052 / -0.142similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, defensive success rate357
2026 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Nevada | 14-49 | L | -1.0 | L | 51.5 | O |
| 2 | @ Georgia | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Indiana | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | vs Mercyhurst | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | @ New Mexico State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 6 | vs Missouri State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | @ Sam Houston | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | vs Delaware | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | @ Middle Tennessee | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | vs Jacksonville State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ Liberty | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs Kennesaw State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Style & Tendencies
Pass 48.8%Rush 51.2%
Havoc/Game
-
Havoc Rate
6.6%
TO Margin
-
Explosive/G
-
Yards/Game
-
Pts/Drive
0.78
3rd Down%
-
3&Out%
33.3%
Team Statistics
2026 season totals across 1 games — Western Kentucky vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Western Kentucky | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 14 | 49 |
| Points / Game | 14.0 | 49.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 23 | 20 |
| Rushing | 11 | 13 |
| Passing | 10 | 6 |
| Penalty | 2 | 1 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 42 | 42 |
| Yards | 164 | 323 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.9 | 7.7 |
| Yards / Game | 164.0 | 323.0 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 5 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 40 | 16 |
| Completions | 24 | 9 |
| Completion % | 60.0% | 56.3% |
| Yards | 203 | 163 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.1 | 10.2 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 2 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 1 |
| Passer Rating | 102.63 | 170.57 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 82 | 58 |
| Yards | 367 | 486 |
| Yards / Play | 4.5 | 8.4 |
| Yards / Game | 367.0 | 486.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 0 | 2 |
| Yards | 0 | 19 |
| Average | — | 9.5 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 2 | 1 |
| Yards | 22 | 30 |
| Average | 11.0 | 30.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 6 | 3 |
| Yards | 218 | 144 |
| Average | 36.3 | 48.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 1 | 0 |
| Yards | 8 | 0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 2 | 0 |
| Lost | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 6 | 4 |
| Yards | 59 | 40 |
| Yards / Game | 59.0 | 40.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 32:33 | 27:27 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 10 |
| Conversions | 6 | 5 |
| Conversion % | 35.3% | 50.0% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 2 |
| Conversions | 1 | 2 |
| Conversion % | 50.0% | 100.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 3 | 5 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 2 | 5 |
| Score % | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 5 |
| TD % | 66.7% | 100.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
| Pct | — | — |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 7 |
| Made | 2 | 7 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.