Fourth Down Data
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UNT

North Texas

Mean GreenBalanced
American Conference0-1#102 (-4.49)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

26· DOverall
Offense
72· BRating
66· CPer play
51· CConsistency
72· BBig plays
Defense
7· FRating
7· FPer play
38· DConsistency
Situational
75· BRed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
74· B3rd down O
9· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.063
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.042
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.157
Defensive EPA/play
+0.305
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.3%
Def Success Rate
47.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.148
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.29

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.99
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.57
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.13
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.00
own return game
Return Defense
-0.29
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where North Texas ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
93th
Opp-adjusted defense
20th
Offensive EPA/play
67th
Defensive EPA/play
7th
Offensive success rate
40th
Explosiveness
72th
Defensive havoc
0th
Points per drive
42th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UAB2026OA +0.031 / -0.061similar: pass defense, havoc rate, TD drive rate3762Missouri2021OA +0.061 / -0.103similar: passing offense, run defense, turnover rate3563Coastal Carolina2017OA +0.006 / -0.136similar: offensive success rate, pass defense, offensive EPA3384Louisiana Tech2023OA -0.009 / -0.137similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, run defense3365UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: TD drive rate, run defense, passing offense330

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Indiana16-52L+40.0W56.5O
2vs UNLV------
3@ Texas State------
4vs Houston Christian------
5@ Tulsa------
6vs Charlotte------
8@ Navy------
9vs Florida Atlantic------
10vs Rice------
11@ UTSA------
12@ Tulane------
13vs UAB------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off76thRush Off29thRed Zone Off76th3rd Down Off74thPass Def9thRush Def2thRed Zone Def29th3rd Down Def9th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.07858th+0.4181th
Red Zone+0.35076th+0.30029th
Third Down+0.50974th+0.6369th
No Garbage Time+0.15767th+0.3057th
First Half+0.00542th+0.2868th
Second Half+0.16267th+0.5382th
Early Downs+0.00142th+0.3961th
Passing Downs+0.37776th+0.4559th
Standard Downs-0.10129th+0.3982th
Goal to Go+2.838100th+0.32956th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.3%Rush 56.7%
Havoc/Game
2.0
Havoc Rate
4.3%
TO Margin
-1.0
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
367.0
Pts/Drive
2.29
3rd Down%
40.0%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — North Texas vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth TexasOpponents
Scoring
Points1652
Points / Game16.052.0
First Downs
Total1918
Rushing55
Passing1211
Penalty22
Rushing
Attempts3830
Yards152134
Yards / Carry4.04.5
Yards / Game152.0134.0
Touchdowns13
Passing
Attempts2916
Completions2313
Completion %79.3%81.3%
Yards215231
Yards / Attempt7.414.4
Touchdowns04
Interceptions10
Passer Rating134.69285.02
Total Offense
Plays6746
Yards367365
Yards / Play5.57.9
Yards / Game367.0365.0
Punt Returns
Returns01
Yards036
Average—36.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns15
Yards16139
Average16.027.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts21
Yards7840
Average39.040.0
Interception Returns
Returns01
Yards031
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles00
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties95
Yards7948
Yards / Game79.048.0
Time of Possession
Per Game37:2222:38
Third Downs
Attempts159
Conversions65
Conversion %40.0%55.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts32
Conversions12
Conversion %33.3%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips34
Scores (TD + FG)34
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns14
TD %33.3%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts41
Made31
Pct75.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts17
Made17
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →