Fourth Down Data
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COLO

Colorado

BuffaloesRun-Heavy
Big 12 Conference1-0#49 (+4.03)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

64· COverall
Offense
46· CRating
38· DPer play
18· DConsistency
75· BBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
61· CPer play
57· CConsistency
Situational
32· DRed-zone O
86· BRed-zone D
53· C3rd down O
72· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.024
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.049
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.004
Defensive EPA/play
-0.174
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.8%
Def Success Rate
40.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.169
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.40

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-2.23
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.57
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-1.96
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Colorado ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
66th
Opp-adjusted defense
80th
Offensive EPA/play
39th
Defensive EPA/play
61th
Offensive success rate
18th
Explosiveness
76th
Defensive havoc
53th
Points per drive
23th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2025OA +0.007 / +0.061similar: turnover rate, run defense, TD drive rate3102Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, TD drive rate3003Georgia Southern2019OA -0.051 / +0.035similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3004California2019OA +0.044 / +0.040similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive EPA2975Old Dominion2023OA -0.079 / +0.034similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense294

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Georgia Tech14-13W+6.5W51.5U
2vs Weber State------
3@ Northwestern------
4@ Baylor------
5vs Texas Tech------
7vs Utah------
8@ Oklahoma State------
9vs Kansas State------
10@ Arizona State------
11vs Houston------
12@ Cincinnati------
13vs UCF------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off59thRush Off26thRed Zone Off32th3rd Down Off53thPass Def48thRush Def75thRed Zone Def87th3rd Down Def72th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00442th-0.17464th
Red Zone-0.14232th-0.76287th
Third Down+0.14053th-0.31972th
No Garbage Time-0.00439th-0.17461th
First Half-0.21916th-0.30178th
Second Half+0.20072th-0.04747th
Early Downs-0.09930th-0.34684th
Passing Downs+0.19459th-0.04348th
Standard Downs-0.12026th-0.26475th
Goal to Go-0.7114th-0.82696th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 35.5%Rush 64.5%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
20.0
Yards/Game
307.0
Pts/Drive
1.40
3rd Down%
41.2%
3&Out%
30.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Colorado vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatColoradoOpponents
Scoring
Points1413
Points / Game14.013.0
First Downs
Total2117
Rushing134
Passing710
Penalty13
Rushing
Attempts4930
Yards18351
Yards / Carry3.71.7
Yards / Game183.051.0
Touchdowns10
Passing
Attempts2724
Completions1417
Completion %51.9%70.8%
Yards124237
Yards / Attempt4.69.9
Touchdowns10
Interceptions00
Passer Rating102.65153.78
Total Offense
Plays7654
Yards307288
Yards / Play4.05.3
Yards / Game307.0288.0
Punt Returns
Returns21
Yards7-10
Average3.5-10.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns12
Yards12130
Average12.065.0
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts64
Yards245149
Average40.837.3
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles13
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties69
Yards6049
Yards / Game60.049.0
Time of Possession
Per Game34:0925:51
Third Downs
Attempts1713
Conversions75
Conversion %41.2%38.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts30
Conversions20
Conversion %66.7%
Red Zone
Trips43
Scores (TD + FG)22
Score %50.0%66.7%
Touchdowns20
TD %50.0%0.0%
Field Goals
Attempts14
Made02
Pct0.0%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts21
Made21
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →