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COLO
Colorado
BuffaloesRun-HeavyBig 12 Conference1-0#49 (+4.03)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
64· COverall
Offense
46· CRating
38· DPer play
18· DConsistency
75· BBig plays
Defense
98· A+Rating
61· CPer play
57· CConsistency
Situational
32· DRed-zone O
86· BRed-zone D
53· C3rd down O
72· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.024
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.049
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.004
Defensive EPA/play
-0.174
lower = better
Off Success Rate
40.8%
Def Success Rate
40.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
18.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.169
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.40
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-2.23
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.57
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.38
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.09
own return game
Return Defense
-1.96
vs opponent returns
Peer Context
Where Colorado ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense66th
Opp-adjusted defense80th
Offensive EPA/play39th
Defensive EPA/play61th
Offensive success rate18th
Explosiveness76th
Defensive havoc53th
Points per drive23th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Auburn2025OA +0.007 / +0.061similar: turnover rate, run defense, TD drive rate3102Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, TD drive rate3003Georgia Southern2019OA -0.051 / +0.035similar: rushing offense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3004California2019OA +0.044 / +0.040similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive EPA2975Old Dominion2023OA -0.079 / +0.034similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense294
2026 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Georgia Tech | 14-13 | W | +6.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Weber State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | @ Northwestern | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | @ Baylor | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | vs Texas Tech | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | vs Utah | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | @ Oklahoma State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | vs Kansas State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | @ Arizona State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | vs Houston | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | @ Cincinnati | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | vs UCF | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.004 | 42th | -0.174 | 64th |
| Red Zone | -0.142 | 32th | -0.762 | 87th |
| Third Down | +0.140 | 53th | -0.319 | 72th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.004 | 39th | -0.174 | 61th |
| First Half | -0.219 | 16th | -0.301 | 78th |
| Second Half | +0.200 | 72th | -0.047 | 47th |
| Early Downs | -0.099 | 30th | -0.346 | 84th |
| Passing Downs | +0.194 | 59th | -0.043 | 48th |
| Standard Downs | -0.120 | 26th | -0.264 | 75th |
| Goal to Go | -0.711 | 4th | -0.826 | 96th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 35.5%Rush 64.5%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
20.0%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
20.0
Yards/Game
307.0
Pts/Drive
1.40
3rd Down%
41.2%
3&Out%
30.0%
Team Statistics
2026 season totals across 1 games — Colorado vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Colorado | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 14 | 13 |
| Points / Game | 14.0 | 13.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 21 | 17 |
| Rushing | 13 | 4 |
| Passing | 7 | 10 |
| Penalty | 1 | 3 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 49 | 30 |
| Yards | 183 | 51 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.7 | 1.7 |
| Yards / Game | 183.0 | 51.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 27 | 24 |
| Completions | 14 | 17 |
| Completion % | 51.9% | 70.8% |
| Yards | 124 | 237 |
| Yards / Attempt | 4.6 | 9.9 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 0 | 0 |
| Passer Rating | 102.65 | 153.78 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 76 | 54 |
| Yards | 307 | 288 |
| Yards / Play | 4.0 | 5.3 |
| Yards / Game | 307.0 | 288.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 2 | 1 |
| Yards | 7 | -10 |
| Average | 3.5 | -10.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 1 | 2 |
| Yards | 12 | 130 |
| Average | 12.0 | 65.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 6 | 4 |
| Yards | 245 | 149 |
| Average | 40.8 | 37.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 0 | 0 |
| Yards | 0 | 0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 1 | 3 |
| Lost | 0 | 1 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 6 | 9 |
| Yards | 60 | 49 |
| Yards / Game | 60.0 | 49.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 34:09 | 25:51 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 17 | 13 |
| Conversions | 7 | 5 |
| Conversion % | 41.2% | 38.5% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 0 |
| Conversions | 2 | 0 |
| Conversion % | 66.7% | — |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 4 | 3 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 2 | 2 |
| Score % | 50.0% | 66.7% |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 0 |
| TD % | 50.0% | 0.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 4 |
| Made | 0 | 2 |
| Pct | 0.0% | 50.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 1 |
| Made | 2 | 1 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.