Fourth Down Data
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CAL

California

Golden BearsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference8-5#45 (+5.42)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

66· COverall
Offense
64· CRating
43· CPer play
34· DConsistency
30· DBig plays
Defense
76· BRating
64· CPer play
49· CConsistency
Situational
93· ARed-zone O
54· CRed-zone D
68· C3rd down O
38· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.044
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.040
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.005
Defensive EPA/play
-0.029
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.8%
Def Success Rate
46.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.024
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.222
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.86

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.62
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.23
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.22
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.19
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#45
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#38
recruiting 7 spots higher
7 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where California ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
69th
Opp-adjusted defense
67th
Offensive EPA/play
43th
Defensive EPA/play
65th
Offensive success rate
37th
Explosiveness
30th
Defensive havoc
54th
Points per drive
27th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Iowa State2025OA +0.008 / +0.035similar: run defense, turnover rate, rushing offense3322Texas A&M2017OA -0.004 / +0.039similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, takeaway rate3293Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: TD drive rate, rushing offense, offensive success rate3274Virginia Tech2024OA +0.002 / +0.048similar: rushing offense, run defense, TD drive rate3275Minnesota2025OA +0.003 / +0.015similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate326

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs UC Davis27-13W-6.0W47.5O
2@ Washington20-19W+13.5W42.5U
3vs North Texas23-17W-14.5L50.5U
4@ Ole Miss28-20W+3.0W43O
5vs Arizona State17-24L-4.0L42.5U
6@ Oregon7-17L+21.5W46.5U
8vs Oregon State17-21L-10.0L51U
9@ Utah0-35L+21.0L36.5U
11vs Washington State33-20W+8.5W52.5O
12vs USC17-41L+4.5L48O
13@ Stanford24-20W0.0W41O
14@ UCLA28-18W+1.0W51U
18@ Illinois35-20W----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS1-4
Away ATS6-1
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS6-2
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off87thRush Off16thRed Zone Off94th3rd Down Off69thPass Def45thRush Def71thRed Zone Def54th3rd Down Def38th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.00446th-0.02661th
Red Zone+0.26994th-0.01854th
Third Down+0.12869th+0.07738th
No Garbage Time-0.00543th-0.02963th
First Half-0.03035th-0.01254th
Second Half+0.02252th-0.04066th
Early Downs-0.09415th-0.06176th
Passing Downs+0.17987th+0.01045th
Standard Downs-0.11416th-0.04571th
Goal to Go+0.24685th+0.17918th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.4%Rush 56.6%
Havoc/Game
14.4
Havoc Rate
18.9%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
14.1
Yards/Game
328.5
Pts/Drive
1.86
3rd Down%
37.6%
3&Out%
26.0%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — California vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCaliforniaOpponents
Scoring
Points276285
Points / Game21.221.9
First Downs
Total244273
Rushing10499
Passing105159
Penalty3515
Rushing
Attempts476461
Yards1,7101,642
Yards / Carry3.63.6
Yards / Game131.5126.3
Touchdowns1616
Passing
Attempts365484
Completions204309
Completion %55.9%63.8%
Yards2,5613,434
Yards / Attempt7.07.1
Touchdowns1916
Interceptions98
Passer Rating127.08131.04
Total Offense
Plays841945
Yards4,2715,076
Yards / Play5.15.4
Yards / Game328.5390.5
Punt Returns
Returns1422
Yards156177
Average11.18.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2227
Yards442599
Average20.122.2
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts7159
Yards2,7932,435
Average39.341.3
Interception Returns
Returns89
Yards65122
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles1121
Lost48
Penalties
Penalties6294
Yards528886
Yards / Game40.668.2
Time of Possession
Per Game29:2130:38
Third Downs
Attempts173195
Conversions6579
Conversion %37.6%40.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1628
Conversions616
Conversion %37.5%57.1%
Red Zone
Trips3550
Scores (TD + FG)3042
Score %85.7%84.0%
Touchdowns2527
TD %71.4%54.0%
Field Goals
Attempts1726
Made1120
Pct64.7%76.9%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3430
Made3329
Pct97.1%96.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →