Fourth Down Data
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GASO

Georgia Southern

EaglesRun-Heavy
Sun Belt Conference7-6#77 (-2.98)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

43· COverall
Offense
32· DRating
35· DPer play
19· DConsistency
34· DBig plays
Defense
50· CRating
51· CPer play
52· CConsistency
Situational
36· DRed-zone O
3· FRed-zone D
24· D3rd down O
81· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.051
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.035
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.029
Defensive EPA/play
-0.001
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.2%
Def Success Rate
45.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.028
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.052
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.16

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.92
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.47
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.13
own return game
Return Defense
+0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#77
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 2 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Georgia Southern ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
31th
Opp-adjusted defense
65th
Offensive EPA/play
36th
Defensive EPA/play
51th
Offensive success rate
16th
Explosiveness
34th
Defensive havoc
73th
Points per drive
49th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Virginia Tech2021OA -0.008 / +0.025similar: passing offense, turnover rate, offensive success rate3492Buffalo2024OA -0.016 / +0.027similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, TD drive rate3443Texas A&M2017OA -0.004 / +0.039similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, havoc rate3424Navy2021OA +0.005 / -0.016similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3365Minnesota2025OA +0.003 / +0.015similar: TD drive rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA331

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ LSU3-55L-5.5L58.5U
2vs Maine26-18W-8.5L46.5U
3@ Minnesota32-35L+17.0W45O
5vs Louisiana24-37L+3.0L56O
6@ South Alabama20-17W-10.0L45U
8vs Coastal Carolina30-27W-7.0L43O
9vs New Mexico State41-7W-13.5W53.5U
10@ App State24-21W+14.0W41.5O
11@ Troy28-49L-2.0L57O
12vs UL Monroe51-29W-6.5W57O
13@ Arkansas State33-38L+1.0L52O
14vs Georgia State38-10W-6.5W56U
17vs Liberty16-23L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
7-5
58.3%
Home ATS3-4
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS3-5
Underdog ATS2-2
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off76thRush Off11thRed Zone Off37th3rd Down Off25thPass Def68thRush Def39thRed Zone Def3th3rd Down Def82th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03732th-0.01055th
Red Zone-0.07837th+0.2663th
Third Down-0.08525th-0.13082th
No Garbage Time-0.02338th-0.01056th
First Half+0.02156th+0.03834th
Second Half-0.10220th-0.05972th
Early Downs-0.09216th+0.07213th
Passing Downs+0.11976th-0.05868th
Standard Downs-0.12511th+0.01839th
Goal to Go-0.26021th+0.19217th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 18.9%Rush 81.1%
Havoc/Game
14.1
Havoc Rate
20.4%
TO Margin
+0.6
Explosive/G
12.9
Yards/Game
327.7
Pts/Drive
2.16
3rd Down%
30.7%
3&Out%
26.7%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Georgia Southern vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatGeorgia SouthernOpponents
Scoring
Points366366
Points / Game28.228.2
First Downs
Total223242
Rushing15897
Passing46127
Penalty1918
Rushing
Attempts666468
Yards3,2921,772
Yards / Carry4.93.8
Yards / Game253.2136.3
Touchdowns2918
Passing
Attempts155403
Completions80242
Completion %51.6%60.0%
Yards9683,157
Yards / Attempt6.27.8
Touchdowns928
Interceptions19
Passer Rating121.94144.31
Total Offense
Plays821871
Yards4,2604,929
Yards / Play5.25.7
Yards / Game327.7379.2
Punt Returns
Returns823
Yards11776
Average14.63.3
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2010
Yards398191
Average19.919.1
Touchdowns11
Punting
Punts6858
Yards2,8912,445
Average42.542.2
Interception Returns
Returns91
Yards1480
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles2516
Lost1010
Penalties
Penalties6663
Yards569595
Yards / Game43.845.8
Time of Possession
Per Game32:5826:54
Third Downs
Attempts166175
Conversions5159
Conversion %30.7%33.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1432
Conversions617
Conversion %42.9%53.1%
Red Zone
Trips4246
Scores (TD + FG)3641
Score %85.7%89.1%
Touchdowns2334
TD %54.8%73.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2820
Made2012
Pct71.4%60.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3644
Made3642
Pct100.0%95.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts73
Made23
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →