Fourth Down Data
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NAVY

Navy

MidshipmenRun-Heavy
American Conference4-8#92 (-2.83)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

31· DOverall
Offense
33· DRating
33· DPer play
19· DConsistency
19· DBig plays
Defense
32· DRating
29· DPer play
37· DConsistency
Situational
29· DRed-zone O
57· CRed-zone D
36· D3rd down O
57· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.005
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.016
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.047
Defensive EPA/play
+0.043
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.3%
Def Success Rate
46.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.089
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.173
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.74

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.72
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.56
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.78
own return game
Return Defense
-0.94
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#92
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#116
model 24 higher
Recruiting Rank
#72
recruiting 20 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Navy ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
50th
Opp-adjusted defense
39th
Offensive EPA/play
34th
Defensive EPA/play
29th
Offensive success rate
21th
Explosiveness
20th
Defensive havoc
35th
Points per drive
22th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UTEP2026OA +0.012 / -0.012similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, pass defense3942Georgia Southern2021OA -0.108 / -0.054similar: defensive EPA, pass defense, offensive success rate3603Virginia Tech2021OA -0.008 / +0.025similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, passing offense3384Georgia Southern2019OA -0.051 / +0.035similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, rushing offense3365Rutgers2021OA -0.113 / +0.017similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, rushing offense335

2021 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Marshall7-49L+2.5L47.5O
2vs Air Force3-23L+7.5L44.5U
4@ Houston20-28L+19.0W47O
5vs UCF34-30W+16.5W53.25O
6vs SMU24-31L+13.5W55.5U
7@ Memphis17-35L----
8vs Cincinnati20-27L+11.0W47U
9@ Tulsa20-17W----
10@ Notre Dame6-34L+20.5L46.75U
12vs East Carolina35-38L+4.0W47O
13@ Temple38-14W-12.5W43.5O
15vs Army17-13W+7.0W35.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
8-4
66.7%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS5-2
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS7-4
Last 5 ATS
WLWWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off16thRush Off43thRed Zone Off29th3rd Down Off37thPass Def43thRush Def24thRed Zone Def57th3rd Down Def58th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.05632th+0.03926th
Red Zone-0.12929th-0.07057th
Third Down+0.01437th+0.04358th
No Garbage Time-0.04335th+0.03234th
First Half-0.07628th+0.06324th
Second Half-0.03734th+0.01244th
Early Downs-0.10519th-0.00944th
Passing Downs-0.14716th+0.01443th
Standard Downs-0.00843th+0.05324th
Goal to Go-0.26317th-0.04855th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 12.2%Rush 87.8%
Havoc/Game
10.4
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
+0.5
Explosive/G
13.7
Yards/Game
283.2
Pts/Drive
1.74
3rd Down%
37.2%
3&Out%
31.7%

Team Statistics

2021 season totals across 12 games — Navy vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNavyOpponents
Scoring
Points241339
Points / Game20.128.3
First Downs
Total202205
Rushing16086
Passing27105
Penalty1514
Rushing
Attempts697390
Yards2,7171,572
Yards / Carry3.94.0
Yards / Game226.4131.0
Touchdowns1925
Passing
Attempts97306
Completions48204
Completion %49.5%66.7%
Yards6812,618
Yards / Attempt7.08.6
Touchdowns615
Interceptions37
Passer Rating122.68150.13
Total Offense
Plays794696
Yards3,3984,190
Yards / Play4.36.0
Yards / Game283.2349.2
Punt Returns
Returns1622
Yards161197
Average10.19.0
Touchdowns11
Kickoff Returns
Returns3137
Yards691693
Average22.318.7
Touchdowns12
Punting
Punts5447
Yards2,1951,909
Average40.640.6
Interception Returns
Returns73
Yards2336
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles2016
Lost57
Penalties
Penalties5366
Yards422537
Yards / Game35.244.8
Time of Possession
Per Game34:5525:01
Third Downs
Attempts188136
Conversions7054
Conversion %37.2%39.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3618
Conversions2611
Conversion %72.2%61.1%
Red Zone
Trips3745
Scores (TD + FG)3235
Score %86.5%77.8%
Touchdowns2026
TD %54.1%57.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1914
Made1511
Pct78.9%78.6%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2841
Made2840
Pct100.0%97.6%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made02
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →