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RUTG
Rutgers
Scarlet KnightsBalancedBig Ten Conference5-8#68 (-0.09)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
49· COverall
Offense
10· FRating
4· FPer play
13· FConsistency
5· FBig plays
Defense
54· CRating
43· CPer play
50· CConsistency
Situational
16· DRed-zone O
70· BRed-zone D
5· F3rd down O
61· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.113
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.017
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.182
Defensive EPA/play
-0.003
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.3%
Def Success Rate
45.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.179
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.140
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.44
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+3.75
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.45
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.53
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.65
own return game
Return Defense
+1.12
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#68
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#96
model 28 higher
Recruiting Rank
#55
recruiting 13 spots higher
3 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Rutgers ranks among all FBS teams in 2021 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense11th
Opp-adjusted defense58th
Offensive EPA/play5th
Defensive EPA/play44th
Offensive success rate20th
Explosiveness5th
Defensive havoc46th
Points per drive9th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Marshall2026OA -0.032 / -0.030similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, passing offense3502Virginia2017OA -0.067 / +0.061similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, offensive success rate3443UTEP2026OA +0.012 / -0.012similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, run defense3434UConn2023OA -0.119 / -0.056similar: offensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense3405Mississippi State2023OA -0.053 / +0.047similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, offensive success rate337
2021 Schedule & Results
13 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Temple | 61-14 | W | -15.0 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 2 | @ Syracuse | 17-7 | W | -1.5 | W | 51.5 | U |
| 3 | vs Delaware | 45-13 | W | -20.0 | W | 45 | O |
| 4 | @ Michigan | 13-20 | L | +14.5 | W | - | - |
| 5 | vs Ohio State | 13-52 | L | +14.5 | L | 58.5 | O |
| 6 | vs Michigan State | 13-31 | L | +5.5 | L | 50 | U |
| 7 | @ Northwestern | 7-21 | L | -2.0 | L | 45 | U |
| 9 | @ Illinois | 20-14 | W | -1.5 | W | 42 | U |
| 10 | vs Wisconsin | 3-52 | L | +12.3 | L | 37.5 | O |
| 11 | @ Indiana | 38-3 | W | +7.0 | W | 42.5 | U |
| 12 | @ Penn State | 0-28 | L | +17.5 | L | 46 | U |
| 13 | vs Maryland | 16-40 | L | +1.5 | L | 53.25 | O |
| 18 | vs Wake Forest | 10-38 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
6-7
46.2%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
5-8
38.5%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS4-2
Favorite ATS4-1
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
LWLLL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.159 | 5th | +0.002 | 43th |
| Red Zone | -0.190 | 16th | -0.135 | 71th |
| Third Down | -0.275 | 5th | +0.029 | 62th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.174 | 7th | -0.015 | 47th |
| First Half | -0.229 | 4th | +0.050 | 29th |
| Second Half | -0.097 | 16th | -0.058 | 66th |
| Early Downs | -0.006 | 51th | -0.006 | 41th |
| Passing Downs | -0.314 | 2th | +0.061 | 29th |
| Standard Downs | -0.078 | 20th | -0.034 | 59th |
| Goal to Go | -0.142 | 33th | -0.098 | 64th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.1%Rush 55.9%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
18.2%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
10.9
Yards/Game
311.2
Pts/Drive
1.44
3rd Down%
31.6%
3&Out%
26.7%
Team Statistics
2021 season totals across 13 games — Rutgers vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Rutgers | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 256 | 333 |
| Points / Game | 19.7 | 25.6 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 227 | 252 |
| Rushing | 122 | 112 |
| Passing | 89 | 116 |
| Penalty | 16 | 24 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 500 | 498 |
| Yards | 1,817 | 2,093 |
| Yards / Carry | 3.6 | 4.2 |
| Yards / Game | 139.8 | 161.0 |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 16 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 394 | 368 |
| Completions | 231 | 206 |
| Completion % | 58.6% | 56.0% |
| Yards | 2,229 | 3,054 |
| Yards / Attempt | 5.7 | 8.3 |
| Touchdowns | 9 | 25 |
| Interceptions | 10 | 7 |
| Passer Rating | 108.61 | 144.30 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 894 | 866 |
| Yards | 4,046 | 5,147 |
| Yards / Play | 4.5 | 5.9 |
| Yards / Game | 311.2 | 395.9 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 23 | 13 |
| Yards | 266 | 41 |
| Average | 11.6 | 3.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 40 | 19 |
| Yards | 813 | 334 |
| Average | 20.3 | 17.6 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 72 | 70 |
| Yards | 3,299 | 2,938 |
| Average | 45.8 | 42.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 7 | 10 |
| Yards | 88 | 77 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 14 | 22 |
| Lost | 4 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 65 | 68 |
| Yards | 528 | 609 |
| Yards / Game | 40.6 | 46.8 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 30:15 | 29:16 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 193 | 177 |
| Conversions | 61 | 60 |
| Conversion % | 31.6% | 33.9% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 39 | 18 |
| Conversions | 14 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 35.9% | 44.4% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 46 | 41 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 35 | 32 |
| Score % | 76.1% | 78.0% |
| Touchdowns | 24 | 23 |
| TD % | 52.2% | 56.1% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 16 | 18 |
| Made | 12 | 11 |
| Pct | 75.0% | 61.1% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 31 | 42 |
| Made | 30 | 40 |
| Pct | 96.8% | 95.2% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 1 |
| Made | 0 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.