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AUB
Auburn
TigersBalancedSoutheastern Conference5-7#44 (+5.30)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
67· COverall
Offense
51· CRating
51· CPer play
50· CConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
83· BRating
65· CPer play
55· CConsistency
Situational
11· FRed-zone O
70· BRed-zone D
51· C3rd down O
83· B3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.007
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.061
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.002
Defensive EPA/play
-0.059
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
44.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.062
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.174
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.92
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.46
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.30
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.78
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.00
own return game
Return Defense
+0.02
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#44
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#31
market 13 higher
Recruiting Rank
#14
recruiting 30 spots higher
50 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Auburn ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense57th
Opp-adjusted defense74th
Offensive EPA/play52th
Defensive EPA/play65th
Offensive success rate50th
Explosiveness7th
Defensive havoc63th
Points per drive30th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: defensive success rate, passing offense, takeaway rate3552Central Michigan2020OA -0.015 / +0.015similar: defensive EPA, run defense, defensive success rate3273Purdue2017OA +0.012 / +0.097similar: passing offense, run defense, TD drive rate3254Buffalo2024OA -0.016 / +0.027similar: passing offense, turnover rate, defensive success rate3225Colorado2026OA +0.024 / +0.049similar: turnover rate, run defense, TD drive rate310
2025 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | @ Baylor | 38-24 | W | - | - | - | - |
| 2 | vs Ball State | 42-3 | W | -42.5 | L | 53 | U |
| 3 | vs South Alabama | 31-15 | W | -24.5 | L | 54 | U |
| 4 | @ Oklahoma | 17-24 | L | +3.5 | L | 42.5 | U |
| 5 | @ Texas A&M | 10-16 | L | +9.5 | W | 36.5 | U |
| 7 | vs Georgia | 10-20 | L | +4.0 | L | 46.5 | U |
| 8 | vs Missouri | 17-23 | L | +1.5 | L | 43.5 | U |
| 9 | @ Arkansas | 33-24 | W | +2.5 | W | 56 | O |
| 10 | vs Kentucky | 3-10 | L | -11.0 | L | 45 | U |
| 11 | @ Vanderbilt | 38-45 | L | -3.5 | L | 48.5 | O |
| 13 | vs Mercer | 62-17 | W | -38.5 | W | 73 | O |
| 14 | vs Alabama | 20-27 | L | +6.0 | L | 46.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
4-8
33.3%
O/U Record
5-7
41.7%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS1-6
Away ATS3-2
Favorite ATS2-4
Underdog ATS2-4
Last 5 ATS
WLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.007 | 53th | -0.075 | 72th |
| Red Zone | -0.209 | 11th | -0.100 | 71th |
| Third Down | +0.083 | 52th | -0.115 | 84th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.009 | 53th | -0.059 | 66th |
| First Half | +0.021 | 56th | -0.075 | 73th |
| Second Half | -0.009 | 53th | -0.076 | 72th |
| Early Downs | +0.099 | 92th | -0.146 | 93th |
| Passing Downs | -0.166 | 16th | +0.018 | 38th |
| Standard Downs | +0.094 | 81th | -0.128 | 90th |
| Goal to Go | -0.307 | 11th | -0.103 | 62th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 44.4%Rush 55.6%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
19.0%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
12.6
Yards/Game
373.9
Pts/Drive
1.92
3rd Down%
39.2%
3&Out%
27.4%
Team Statistics
2025 season totals across 12 games — Auburn vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Auburn | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 321 | 248 |
| Points / Game | 26.8 | 20.7 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 249 | 230 |
| Rushing | 122 | 64 |
| Passing | 107 | 134 |
| Penalty | 20 | 32 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 454 | 417 |
| Yards | 2,122 | 1,192 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.7 | 2.9 |
| Yards / Game | 176.8 | 99.3 |
| Touchdowns | 23 | 12 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 362 | 381 |
| Completions | 221 | 238 |
| Completion % | 61.0% | 62.5% |
| Yards | 2,365 | 2,758 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.5 | 7.2 |
| Touchdowns | 11 | 15 |
| Interceptions | 4 | 11 |
| Passer Rating | 123.75 | 130.49 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 816 | 798 |
| Yards | 4,487 | 3,950 |
| Yards / Play | 5.5 | 4.9 |
| Yards / Game | 373.9 | 329.2 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 8 |
| Yards | 60 | 48 |
| Average | 3.8 | 6.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 20 | 12 |
| Yards | 459 | 264 |
| Average | 22.9 | 22.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 49 | 54 |
| Yards | 2,060 | 2,392 |
| Average | 42.0 | 44.3 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 11 | 4 |
| Yards | 250 | 125 |
| Touchdowns | 2 | 1 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 16 | 10 |
| Lost | 4 | 6 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 93 | 69 |
| Yards | 764 | 630 |
| Yards / Game | 63.7 | 52.5 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 29:26 | 30:15 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 166 | 170 |
| Conversions | 65 | 60 |
| Conversion % | 39.2% | 35.3% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 22 |
| Conversions | 12 | 15 |
| Conversion % | 52.2% | 68.2% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 41 | 40 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 36 | 35 |
| Score % | 87.8% | 87.5% |
| Touchdowns | 20 | 24 |
| TD % | 48.8% | 60.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 22 |
| Made | 20 | 18 |
| Pct | 80.0% | 81.8% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 35 | 26 |
| Made | 35 | 24 |
| Pct | 100.0% | 92.3% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 2 | 2 |
| Made | 2 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.