Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
CMU

Central Michigan

ChippewasRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference3-3#71 (-0.66)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

45· COverall
Offense
45· CRating
32· DPer play
13· FConsistency
5· FBig plays
Defense
67· CRating
67· CPer play
60· CConsistency
Situational
13· FRed-zone O
28· DRed-zone D
12· F3rd down O
15· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.015
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.015
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.032
Defensive EPA/play
-0.024
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.1%
Def Success Rate
46.0%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.008
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.050
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.04

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-1.25
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.26
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.15
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.80
own return game
Return Defense
-0.34
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#71
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#51
market 20 higher
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Central Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2020 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
35th
Opp-adjusted defense
67th
Offensive EPA/play
33th
Defensive EPA/play
67th
Offensive success rate
19th
Explosiveness
5th
Defensive havoc
73th
Points per drive
40th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Auburn2025OA +0.007 / +0.061similar: run defense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3272Marshall2025OA +0.006 / -0.022similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, defensive success rate3183California2021OA -0.056 / -0.013similar: TD drive rate, defensive success rate, turnover rate3164Troy2018OA -0.010 / +0.064similar: defensive EPA, offensive success rate, takeaway rate3075Kansas State2017OA +0.021 / +0.012similar: rushing offense, turnover rate, passing offense304

2020 Schedule & Results

6 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
10vs Ohio30-27W-7.5W57.5U
11@ Northern Illinois40-10W-2.5L--
12vs Western Michigan44-52L-7.0W59U
13@ Eastern Michigan31-23W----
14vs Ball State20-45L-1.0L61.75O
15@ Toledo23-24L+11.0W54U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-2
66.7%
O/U Record
2-3
40.0%
Straight Up
3-3
50.0%
Home ATS1-2
Away ATS3-0
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS2-0
Last 5 ATS
WLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off45thRush Off58thRed Zone Off13th3rd Down Off13thPass Def22thRush Def85thRed Zone Def28th3rd Down Def15th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02152th-0.00661th
Red Zone-0.19213th+0.10228th
Third Down-0.19613th+0.30715th
No Garbage Time-0.02736th-0.03168th
First Half-0.14513th+0.13116th
Second Half+0.17891th-0.15888th
Early Downs+0.04770th-0.01360th
Passing Downs+0.01345th+0.16022th
Standard Downs+0.02558th-0.09985th
Goal to Go-0.10430th+0.12438th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 40.0%Rush 60.0%
Havoc/Game
15.5
Havoc Rate
20.5%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
12.7
Yards/Game
420.5
Pts/Drive
2.04
3rd Down%
28.2%
3&Out%
28.6%

Team Statistics

2020 season totals across 6 games — Central Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCentral MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points188181
Points / Game31.330.2
First Downs
Total117129
Rushing6548
Passing4968
Penalty313
Rushing
Attempts260250
Yards1,309783
Yards / Carry5.03.1
Yards / Game218.2130.5
Touchdowns167
Passing
Attempts173189
Completions106109
Completion %61.3%57.7%
Yards1,2141,783
Yards / Attempt7.09.4
Touchdowns715
Interceptions48
Passer Rating128.95154.64
Total Offense
Plays433439
Yards2,5232,566
Yards / Play5.85.8
Yards / Game420.5427.7
Punt Returns
Returns910
Yards3046
Average3.34.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1628
Yards304589
Average19.021.0
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts3328
Yards1,4251,032
Average43.236.9
Interception Returns
Returns84
Yards4813
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles911
Lost57
Penalties
Penalties3733
Yards356227
Yards / Game59.337.8
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5831:02
Third Downs
Attempts8589
Conversions2440
Conversion %28.2%44.9%
Fourth Downs
Attempts198
Conversions113
Conversion %57.9%37.5%
Red Zone
Trips2320
Scores (TD + FG)1819
Score %78.3%95.0%
Touchdowns1413
TD %60.9%65.0%
Field Goals
Attempts89
Made87
Pct100.0%77.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts1723
Made1622
Pct94.1%95.7%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts60
Made40
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →