Fourth Down Data
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JXST

Jacksonville State

GamecocksBalanced
Conference USA1-1#54 (+2.72)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

61· COverall
Offense
77· BRating
32· DPer play
53· CConsistency
93· ABig plays
Defense
46· CRating
30· DPer play
26· DConsistency
Situational
73· BRed-zone O
46· CRed-zone D
66· C3rd down O
71· B3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.004
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.048
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.042
Defensive EPA/play
+0.042
lower = better
Off Success Rate
51.3%
Def Success Rate
46.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
31.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
16.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.084
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.018
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.69

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.88
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.06
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.53
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.23
own return game
Return Defense
-0.18
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Jacksonville State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
44th
Opp-adjusted defense
17th
Offensive EPA/play
32th
Defensive EPA/play
31th
Offensive success rate
64th
Explosiveness
94th
Defensive havoc
42th
Points per drive
49th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Georgia Southern2024OA -0.003 / -0.012similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, turnover rate3572Rice2022OA -0.041 / -0.043similar: defensive EPA, TD drive rate, run defense3473Fresno State2019OA -0.044 / -0.036similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, TD drive rate3434California2023OA -0.024 / -0.003similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, defensive success rate3425Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, turnover rate336

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ North Dakota State7-33L+6.5L46.5U
1vs Eastern Kentucky49-7W-21.8W54O
2@ Ohio------
3vs Georgia Southern------
4vs Middle Tennessee------
6@ Kennesaw State------
7vs Florida International------
9@ New Mexico State------
10vs Sam Houston------
11@ Western Kentucky------
12vs Missouri State------
13@ Delaware------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-1
50.0%
O/U Record
1-1
50.0%
Straight Up
1-1
50.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
LW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off26thRush Off48thRed Zone Off74th3rd Down Off66thPass Def18thRush Def64thRed Zone Def46th3rd Down Def72th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.01837th-0.03145th
Red Zone+0.33074th-0.07346th
Third Down+0.32466th-0.31472th
No Garbage Time-0.04232th+0.04231th
First Half+0.14663th+0.06030th
Second Half-0.17423th-0.15260th
Early Downs+0.02047th-0.19168th
Passing Downs-0.17226th+0.34018th
Standard Downs+0.04148th-0.19464th
Goal to Go+1.36197th+0.54640th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.1%Rush 53.9%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
17.2%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
11.5
Yards/Game
348.0
Pts/Drive
2.69
3rd Down%
52.4%
3&Out%
7.7%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 2 games — Jacksonville State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatJacksonville StateOpponents
Scoring
Points5640
Points / Game28.020.0
First Downs
Total4036
Rushing1617
Passing1814
Penalty65
Rushing
Attempts6282
Yards259404
Yards / Carry4.24.9
Yards / Game129.5202.0
Touchdowns21
Passing
Attempts5342
Completions3527
Completion %66.0%64.3%
Yards437254
Yards / Attempt8.26.0
Touchdowns52
Interceptions23
Passer Rating158.88116.51
Total Offense
Plays115124
Yards696658
Yards / Play6.15.3
Yards / Game348.0329.0
Punt Returns
Returns30
Yards170
Average5.7—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns24
Yards31119
Average15.529.8
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts67
Yards284278
Average47.339.7
Interception Returns
Returns32
Yards514
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles42
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties1324
Yards125189
Yards / Game62.594.5
Time of Possession
Per Game25:1334:47
Third Downs
Attempts2125
Conversions118
Conversion %52.4%32.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts34
Conversions23
Conversion %66.7%75.0%
Red Zone
Trips42
Scores (TD + FG)32
Score %75.0%100.0%
Touchdowns31
TD %75.0%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts14
Made04
Pct0.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts84
Made84
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →