Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
The Recap
Week 5, 2026 — the week in review
Week 5 · 2 of 59 games complete · 1 one-score finish · 0 upsets · 0 weather-affected
Best single-game performances — offense
Non-garbage-time EPA per play.
North Texas
at Tulsa
+0.116
EPA/play
North Texas averaged +0.116 EPA per play against Tulsa on a 42.5% success rate.
Share →Tulsa
vs North Texas
+0.024
EPA/play
Tulsa averaged +0.024 EPA per play against North Texas on a 47.3% success rate.
Share →Best single-game performances — defense
Non-garbage-time EPA per play. Defensive EPA is credited to the defense — higher is better.
New Mexico State
vs Western Kentucky
+0.218
EPA/play
New Mexico State's defense produced +0.218 EPA per play against Western Kentucky (58.1% success rate).
Share →Western Kentucky
at New Mexico State
+0.039
EPA/play
Western Kentucky's defense produced +0.039 EPA per play against New Mexico State (56.7% success rate).
Share →Every game, and what it looked like before
Final scores for the week, each with the two past games whose team profiles most resembled this matchup — the same engine that powers The Archive. Descriptive resemblance, nothing more.
Closest comps: 2022 Washington State 33-51 Washington · 2020 Central Michigan 20-45 Ball State
Closest comps: 2026 Nevada 49-14 Western Kentucky · 2022 Purdue 17-9 Northwestern
Against the pre-game line
How the week's results landed relative to the pre-game consensus spread and total. Descriptive only — every FBS game since 2017 is available on the Betting page.
1 of 250.0%
favorites covered
0
pushes
1 of 250.0%
overs
9.75points
avg. miss vs. the number
Furthest above the spread
| Favorite | Opponent | Spread | Margin | vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| New Mexico State | Western Kentucky | -2.0 | +21.0 | +19.0 |
| North Texas | Tulsa | -1.5 | +1.0 | -0.5 |
Furthest below the spread
| Favorite | Opponent | Spread | Margin | vs spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North Texas | Tulsa | -1.5 | +1.0 | -0.5 |
| New Mexico State | Western Kentucky | -2.0 | +21.0 | +19.0 |