Fourth Down Data
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SYR

Syracuse

OrangeBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference1-0#8 (+10.55)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

94· AOverall
Offense
85· BRating
85· BPer play
84· BConsistency
79· BBig plays
Defense
73· BRating
91· A-Per play
88· BConsistency
Situational
48· CRed-zone O
61· C3rd down O
44· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.031
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.060
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.293
Defensive EPA/play
-0.588
lower = better
Off Success Rate
53.8%
Def Success Rate
28.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
27.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.881
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
5.83

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.95
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.28
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+1.22
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.37
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#8
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 18 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Syracuse ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
74th
Opp-adjusted defense
88th
Offensive EPA/play
86th
Defensive EPA/play
92th
Offensive success rate
72th
Explosiveness
80th
Defensive havoc
92th
Points per drive
95th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1App State2017OA -0.032 / +0.085similar: havoc rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense4172Clemson2020OA +0.058 / +0.078similar: pass defense, rushing offense, passing offense4093Ohio State2017OA +0.212 / +0.167similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, run defense4094Penn State2017OA +0.117 / +0.130similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, takeaway rate3835Oklahoma2020OA +0.043 / +0.039similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, takeaway rate375

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs New Hampshire66-3W-35.5W55.5O
2vs California------
3@ Pittsburgh------
5@ UConn------
6@ Virginia------
7vs Louisville------
8@ North Carolina------
9vs SMU------
10vs Clemson------
11@ NC State------
12@ Boston College------
13vs Notre Dame------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off85thRush Off52thRed Zone Off48th3rd Down Off62thPass Def87thRush Def89thRed Zone Def0th3rd Down Def45th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.17974th-0.42796th
Red Zone+0.08248th-0th
Third Down+0.22862th-0.04145th
No Garbage Time+0.31990th-0.41988th
First Half+0.31989th-0.41985th
Second Half-0.00344th-0.43792th
Early Downs+0.04554th-0.52596th
Passing Downs+0.50385th-0.44787th
Standard Downs+0.05152th-0.40889th
Goal to Go+0.13235th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 43.6%Rush 56.4%
Havoc/Game
21.0
Havoc Rate
33.9%
TO Margin
+3.0
Explosive/G
10.0
Yards/Game
514.0
Pts/Drive
5.83
3rd Down%
66.7%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Syracuse vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSyracuseOpponents
Scoring
Points663
Points / Game66.03.0
First Downs
Total3211
Rushing164
Passing135
Penalty32
Rushing
Attempts4434
Yards23960
Yards / Carry5.41.8
Yards / Game239.060.0
Touchdowns40
Passing
Attempts3426
Completions2215
Completion %64.7%57.7%
Yards27599
Yards / Attempt8.13.8
Touchdowns40
Interceptions01
Passer Rating171.4781.98
Total Offense
Plays7860
Yards514159
Yards / Play6.62.6
Yards / Game514.0159.0
Punt Returns
Returns70
Yards1330
Average19.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns34
Yards5765
Average19.016.3
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts28
Yards76317
Average38.039.6
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards170
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles04
Lost02
Penalties
Penalties129
Yards12567
Yards / Game125.067.0
Time of Possession
Per Game32:3427:26
Third Downs
Attempts1215
Conversions85
Conversion %66.7%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts10
Conversions00
Conversion %0.0%—
Red Zone
Trips90
Scores (TD + FG)80
Score %88.9%—
Touchdowns70
TD %77.8%—
Field Goals
Attempts12
Made11
Pct100.0%50.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts90
Made70
Pct77.8%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →