Fourth Down Data
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MEM

Memphis

TigersRun-Heavy
American Conference2-0
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.102
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.012
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.211
Defensive EPA/play
+0.015
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.8%
Def Success Rate
44.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
30.1%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.197
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.002
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.88

Peer Context

Where Memphis ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
99th
Opp-adjusted defense
42th
Offensive EPA/play
72th
Defensive EPA/play
36th
Offensive success rate
52th
Explosiveness
90th
Defensive havoc
66th
Points per drive
53th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oklahoma State2019OA +0.084 / +0.036similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, turnover rate3762Michigan State2021OA +0.076 / -0.001similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, defensive EPA3693Utah State2023OA +0.011 / -0.063similar: offensive EPA, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3564Mississippi State2019OA +0.064 / -0.030similar: rushing offense, run defense, havoc rate3535Michigan2025OA +0.091 / +0.024similar: rushing offense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate349

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ UNLV27-21W+4.0W55.5U
1vs Arkansas State42-24W-11.0W53.5O
2@ Boise State------
3vs UT Martin------
5@ Charlotte------
6vs UAB------
7@ Tulane------
8vs East Carolina------
9vs Army------
11@ South Florida------
12@ Navy------
13vs Temple------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-1
50.0%
Straight Up
2-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
WW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off36thRush Off93thRed Zone Off58th3rd Down Off50thPass Def85thRush Def7thRed Zone Def65th3rd Down Def57th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.21180th+0.01535th
Red Zone+0.16158th-0.30265th
Third Down+0.08450th-0.16157th
No Garbage Time+0.21174th+0.01537th
First Half+0.16764th+0.17018th
Second Half+0.24981th-0.14559th
Early Downs+0.29691th+0.13317th
Passing Downs-0.07036th-0.39385th
Standard Downs+0.32793th+0.2617th
Goal to Go+0.43163th+0.18362th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 33.3%Rush 66.7%
Havoc/Game
-
Havoc Rate
23.6%
TO Margin
-
Explosive/G
-
Yards/Game
-
Pts/Drive
2.88
3rd Down%
-
3&Out%
20.8%
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →