Fourth Down Data
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MSST

Mississippi State

BulldogsRun-Heavy
Southeastern Conference6-7#50 (+3.01)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

63· COverall
Offense
75· BRating
51· CPer play
57· CConsistency
85· BBig plays
Defense
42· CRating
24· DPer play
29· DConsistency
Situational
86· BRed-zone O
46· CRed-zone D
55· C3rd down O
57· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.064
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.030
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.012
Defensive EPA/play
+0.071
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.1%
Def Success Rate
48.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.059
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.036
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.23

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.37
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.14
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.28
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.20
own return game
Return Defense
-0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#50
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#26
recruiting 24 spots higher
18 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Mississippi State ranks among all FBS teams in 2019 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
75th
Opp-adjusted defense
38th
Offensive EPA/play
51th
Defensive EPA/play
24th
Offensive success rate
69th
Explosiveness
86th
Defensive havoc
74th
Points per drive
52th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Memphis2026OA +0.102 / -0.012similar: rushing offense, run defense, havoc rate3532Kansas2024OA +0.048 / -0.020similar: takeaway rate, defensive EPA, passing offense3143Michigan State2021OA +0.076 / -0.001similar: pass defense, havoc rate, defensive success rate3134Western Michigan2018OA +0.035 / -0.079similar: havoc rate, pass defense, defensive success rate3085Tulane2021OA +0.011 / -0.020similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, run defense307

2019 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Louisiana38-28W-4.5L64.5O
2vs Southern Miss38-15W-16.5W51O
3vs Kansas State24-31L-7.0L51O
4vs Kentucky28-13W-5.5W48U
5@ Auburn23-56L+7.5L47O
7@ Tennessee10-20L-5.0L52.5U
8vs LSU13-36L+17.5L62U
9@ Texas A&M30-49L+10.5L50O
10@ Arkansas54-24W-7.0W59O
12vs Alabama7-38L+21.0L61.5U
13vs Abilene Christian45-7W-37.0W57U
14vs Ole Miss21-20W+2.0W59.5U
18@ Louisville28-38L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-7
41.7%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
5-7
41.7%
Home ATS4-3
Away ATS1-4
Favorite ATS4-3
Underdog ATS1-4
Last 5 ATS
LWLWW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off51thRush Off79thRed Zone Off87th3rd Down Off55thPass Def20thRush Def41thRed Zone Def47th3rd Down Def57th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06070th+0.05527th
Red Zone+0.20387th+0.00747th
Third Down+0.05655th-0.00857th
No Garbage Time+0.03259th+0.06328th
First Half+0.04261th+0.03736th
Second Half+0.07975th+0.07519th
Early Downs+0.06576th+0.03534th
Passing Downs+0.02851th+0.13220th
Standard Downs+0.07779th+0.01541th
Goal to Go+0.21383th+0.18117th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 37.3%Rush 62.7%
Havoc/Game
13.5
Havoc Rate
20.5%
TO Margin
+0.1
Explosive/G
13.4
Yards/Game
400.1
Pts/Drive
2.23
3rd Down%
38.9%
3&Out%
26.6%

Team Statistics

2019 season totals across 13 games — Mississippi State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMississippi StateOpponents
Scoring
Points359375
Points / Game27.628.8
First Downs
Total280264
Rushing145108
Passing112136
Penalty2320
Rushing
Attempts529456
Yards2,8681,981
Yards / Carry5.44.3
Yards / Game220.6152.4
Touchdowns2725
Passing
Attempts315368
Completions186224
Completion %59.0%60.9%
Yards2,3333,208
Yards / Attempt7.48.7
Touchdowns1922
Interceptions1010
Passer Rating134.82148.39
Total Offense
Plays844824
Yards5,2015,189
Yards / Play6.26.3
Yards / Game400.1399.2
Punt Returns
Returns1119
Yards48169
Average4.48.9
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2641
Yards430807
Average16.519.7
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts5351
Yards2,2562,211
Average42.643.4
Interception Returns
Returns1010
Yards163132
Touchdowns20
Fumbles
Fumbles2125
Lost1314
Penalties
Penalties7264
Yards578558
Yards / Game44.542.9
Time of Possession
Per Game31:3928:20
Third Downs
Attempts149150
Conversions5858
Conversion %38.9%38.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1817
Conversions79
Conversion %38.9%52.9%
Red Zone
Trips4453
Scores (TD + FG)3842
Score %86.4%79.2%
Touchdowns3334
TD %75.0%64.2%
Field Goals
Attempts1215
Made911
Pct75.0%73.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts4548
Made4446
Pct97.8%95.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts31
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →