Fourth Down Data
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MTSU

Middle Tennessee

Blue RaidersBalanced
Conference USA1-0#112 (-6.24)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

19· DOverall
Offense
39· DRating
74· BPer play
83· BConsistency
69· CBig plays
Defense
12· FRating
37· DPer play
46· CConsistency
Situational
25· DRed-zone O
52· CRed-zone D
86· B3rd down O
61· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.018
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.072
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.221
Defensive EPA/play
-0.002
lower = better
Off Success Rate
58.3%
Def Success Rate
45.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.224
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.88

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.55
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.06
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.33
own return game
Return Defense
-0.01
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Middle Tennessee ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
62th
Opp-adjusted defense
7th
Offensive EPA/play
75th
Defensive EPA/play
37th
Offensive success rate
86th
Explosiveness
69th
Defensive havoc
12th
Points per drive
66th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Mississippi State2026OA +0.028 / +0.032similar: turnover rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3332Northwestern2026OA +0.021 / -0.125similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, defensive EPA3323Buffalo2017OA +0.003 / -0.072similar: havoc rate, offensive EPA, defensive EPA3314North Carolina2023OA +0.046 / -0.032similar: passing offense, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3295Oregon2026OA +0.017 / -0.041similar: passing offense, run defense, turnover rate325

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Murray State38-14W-21.5W57.5U
2@ Marshall------
3vs Nevada------
4@ Jacksonville State------
5@ Kansas------
7vs Delaware------
8@ Florida International------
9vs Kennesaw State------
10vs Western Kentucky------
11@ Liberty------
12@ Sam Houston------
13vs New Mexico State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off85thRush Off69thRed Zone Off25th3rd Down Off87thPass Def18thRush Def59thRed Zone Def52th3rd Down Def62th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.22183th+0.02134th
Red Zone-0.22625th-0.14252th
Third Down+0.75487th-0.19862th
No Garbage Time+0.22175th-0.00239th
First Half+0.22474th+0.06229th
Second Half+0.21475th-0.02443th
Early Downs+0.09166th-0.35885th
Passing Downs+0.48785th+0.34618th
Standard Downs+0.12369th-0.14259th
Goal to Go+1.51897th+1.20614th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 54.2%Rush 45.8%
Havoc/Game
5.0
Havoc Rate
10.4%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
12.0
Yards/Game
396.0
Pts/Drive
3.88
3rd Down%
42.9%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Middle Tennessee vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMiddle TennesseeOpponents
Scoring
Points3814
Points / Game38.014.0
First Downs
Total2114
Rushing97
Passing95
Penalty32
Rushing
Attempts2227
Yards196145
Yards / Carry8.95.4
Yards / Game196.0145.0
Touchdowns22
Passing
Attempts2621
Completions2012
Completion %76.9%57.1%
Yards200134
Yards / Attempt7.76.4
Touchdowns20
Interceptions00
Passer Rating166.92110.74
Total Offense
Plays4848
Yards396279
Yards / Play8.35.8
Yards / Game396.0279.0
Punt Returns
Returns30
Yards90
Average3.0—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns24
Yards3380
Average16.520.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts15
Yards53194
Average53.038.8
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles01
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties99
Yards7790
Yards / Game77.090.0
Time of Possession
Per Game25:4223:10
Third Downs
Attempts710
Conversions33
Conversion %42.9%30.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts22
Conversions12
Conversion %50.0%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips32
Scores (TD + FG)21
Score %66.7%50.0%
Touchdowns21
TD %66.7%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts10
Made10
Pct100.0%—
PAT Kicking
Attempts52
Made52
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →