Fourth Down Data
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SDSU

San Diego State

AztecsRun-Heavy
Pac-12 Conference1-0#85 (-1.28)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

38· DOverall
Offense
53· CRating
67· CPer play
46· CConsistency
88· BBig plays
Defense
19· DRating
57· CPer play
47· CConsistency
Situational
39· DRed-zone O
62· CRed-zone D
44· C3rd down O
68· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.005
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.029
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.169
Defensive EPA/play
-0.160
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.6%
Def Success Rate
43.9%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
30.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
0.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.329
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.38

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+1.57
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.04
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.91
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.66
own return game
Return Defense
-0.04
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where San Diego State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
50th
Opp-adjusted defense
28th
Offensive EPA/play
68th
Defensive EPA/play
58th
Offensive success rate
47th
Explosiveness
89th
Defensive havoc
9th
Points per drive
71th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Buffalo2018OA +0.077 / -0.060similar: takeaway rate, pass defense, turnover rate3332Nevada2026OA +0.038 / +0.011similar: pass defense, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3213Boston College2021OA -0.024 / +0.004similar: run defense, defensive success rate, offensive success rate3204Notre Dame2017OA +0.053 / +0.157similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, passing offense3155Middle Tennessee2026OA +0.018 / -0.072similar: havoc rate, run defense, offensive EPA312

2026 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Portland State53-20W-39.0L62.5O
2@ UCLA------
3vs James Madison------
4@ Toledo------
5vs Texas State------
6@ Oregon State------
7vs Fresno State------
8@ Colorado State------
9vs Washington State------
11vs Utah State------
12@ Boise State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off100thRush Off6thRed Zone Off39th3rd Down Off45thPass Def28thRush Def69thRed Zone Def63th3rd Down Def69th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.11668th-0.09555th
Red Zone-0.08639th-0.27863th
Third Down+0.02345th-0.25969th
No Garbage Time+0.16970th-0.16056th
First Half+0.16865th-0.19261th
Second Half+0.05853th+0.00239th
Early Downs-0.23711th-0.22172th
Passing Downs+1.408100th+0.20828th
Standard Downs-0.3626th-0.23569th
Goal to Go-0.13628th+0.21260th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 33.3%Rush 66.7%
Havoc/Game
8.0
Havoc Rate
9.6%
TO Margin
0.0
Explosive/G
12.0
Yards/Game
394.0
Pts/Drive
4.38
3rd Down%
50.0%
3&Out%
12.5%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — San Diego State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSan Diego StateOpponents
Scoring
Points5320
Points / Game53.020.0
First Downs
Total2221
Rushing126
Passing614
Penalty41
Rushing
Attempts4230
Yards23795
Yards / Carry5.63.2
Yards / Game237.095.0
Touchdowns41
Passing
Attempts2152
Completions1431
Completion %66.7%59.6%
Yards157280
Yards / Attempt7.55.4
Touchdowns21
Interceptions12
Passer Rating151.37103.50
Total Offense
Plays6382
Yards394375
Yards / Play6.34.6
Yards / Game394.0375.0
Punt Returns
Returns42
Yards518
Average1.39.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns41
Yards17122
Average42.822.0
Touchdowns10
Punting
Punts24
Yards9479
Average47.019.8
Interception Returns
Returns21
Yards100
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles21
Lost21
Penalties
Penalties612
Yards5598
Yards / Game55.098.0
Time of Possession
Per Game26:3533:25
Third Downs
Attempts1219
Conversions67
Conversion %50.0%36.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts25
Conversions13
Conversion %50.0%60.0%
Red Zone
Trips75
Scores (TD + FG)64
Score %85.7%80.0%
Touchdowns52
TD %71.4%40.0%
Field Goals
Attempts12
Made12
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts62
Made62
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →