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BUF
Buffalo
BullsRun-HeavyMid-American Conference10-4#44 (+3.36)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
67· COverall
Offense
92· A-Rating
88· BPer play
84· BConsistency
80· BBig plays
Defense
40· CRating
51· CPer play
68· CConsistency
Situational
41· CRed-zone O
29· DRed-zone D
94· A3rd down O
45· C3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
+0.077
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.060
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.135
Defensive EPA/play
-0.007
lower = better
Off Success Rate
48.5%
Def Success Rate
43.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
25.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.142
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.010
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.98
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.80
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.54
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.17
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.00
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#44
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#77
model 33 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Buffalo ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense78th
Opp-adjusted defense29th
Offensive EPA/play89th
Defensive EPA/play52th
Offensive success rate76th
Explosiveness81th
Defensive havoc58th
Points per drive92th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Florida State2025OA +0.075 / -0.008similar: turnover rate, offensive success rate, offensive EPA3742Utah2026OA +0.030 / -0.011similar: defensive success rate, rushing offense, offensive EPA3643UCLA2020OA +0.029 / +0.008similar: offensive success rate, turnover rate, pass defense3514Baylor2024OA +0.032 / -0.011similar: run defense, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3415Ohio2025OA +0.039 / -0.025similar: run defense, pass defense, passing offense339
2018 Schedule & Results
14 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Delaware State | 48-10 | W | -2.0 | L | 50.5 | O |
| 2 | @ Temple | 36-29 | W | +4.0 | W | 52.5 | O |
| 3 | vs Eastern Michigan | 35-28 | W | -3.0 | W | 54 | O |
| 4 | @ Rutgers | 42-13 | W | -6.0 | W | 54 | O |
| 5 | vs Army | 13-42 | L | -7.5 | L | 54.5 | O |
| 6 | @ Central Michigan | 34-24 | W | -6.5 | W | 52 | O |
| 7 | vs Akron | 24-6 | W | -12.0 | W | 55 | U |
| 8 | @ Toledo | 31-17 | W | +3.0 | W | 63 | U |
| 10 | vs Miami (OH) | 51-42 | W | -7.0 | W | 53 | O |
| 11 | vs Kent State | 48-14 | W | -17.0 | W | 44.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Ohio | 17-52 | L | +2.5 | L | 66 | O |
| 13 | @ Bowling Green | 44-14 | W | -16.0 | W | 62 | U |
| 14 | vs Northern Illinois | 29-30 | L | -3.0 | L | 51 | O |
| 17 | @ Troy | 32-42 | L | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
9-4
69.2%
O/U Record
10-3
76.9%
Straight Up
9-4
69.2%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS5-2
Favorite ATS7-3
Underdog ATS2-1
Last 5 ATS
WWLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | +0.092 | 85th | -0.007 | 52th |
| Red Zone | -0.014 | 42th | +0.101 | 30th |
| Third Down | +0.378 | 95th | +0.042 | 45th |
| No Garbage Time | +0.128 | 89th | -0.015 | 55th |
| First Half | +0.153 | 95th | -0.051 | 63th |
| Second Half | +0.016 | 55th | +0.039 | 37th |
| Early Downs | -0.029 | 42th | -0.066 | 69th |
| Passing Downs | +0.249 | 95th | +0.061 | 40th |
| Standard Downs | +0.007 | 52th | -0.048 | 64th |
| Goal to Go | +0.128 | 61th | +0.169 | 34th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 41.7%Rush 58.3%
Havoc/Game
13.4
Havoc Rate
19.5%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
15.2
Yards/Game
414.5
Pts/Drive
2.98
3rd Down%
42.4%
3&Out%
18.9%
Team Statistics
2018 season totals across 14 games — Buffalo vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Buffalo | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 484 | 363 |
| Points / Game | 34.6 | 25.9 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 309 | 252 |
| Rushing | 136 | 128 |
| Passing | 128 | 107 |
| Penalty | 45 | 17 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 585 | 545 |
| Yards | 2,648 | 2,256 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.5 | 4.1 |
| Yards / Game | 189.1 | 161.1 |
| Touchdowns | 36 | 22 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 419 | 404 |
| Completions | 230 | 217 |
| Completion % | 54.9% | 53.7% |
| Yards | 3,155 | 2,719 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.5 | 6.7 |
| Touchdowns | 28 | 24 |
| Interceptions | 13 | 14 |
| Passer Rating | 133.99 | 122.92 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 1,004 | 949 |
| Yards | 5,803 | 4,975 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 5.2 |
| Yards / Game | 414.5 | 355.4 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 26 | 17 |
| Yards | 255 | 102 |
| Average | 9.8 | 6.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 1 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 35 | 31 |
| Yards | 626 | 683 |
| Average | 17.9 | 22.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 55 | 73 |
| Yards | 2,208 | 3,041 |
| Average | 40.1 | 41.7 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 14 | 13 |
| Yards | 94 | 53 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 17 | 19 |
| Lost | 7 | 10 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 69 | 106 |
| Yards | 572 | 1,087 |
| Yards / Game | 40.9 | 77.6 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 31:33 | 28:27 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 198 | 206 |
| Conversions | 84 | 77 |
| Conversion % | 42.4% | 37.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 32 |
| Conversions | 19 | 21 |
| Conversion % | 59.4% | 65.6% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 66 | 38 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 50 | 31 |
| Score % | 75.8% | 81.6% |
| Touchdowns | 43 | 25 |
| TD % | 65.2% | 65.8% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 15 | 13 |
| Made | 10 | 9 |
| Pct | 66.7% | 69.2% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 62 | 46 |
| Made | 54 | 46 |
| Pct | 87.1% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 4 | 2 |
| Made | 2 | 1 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.