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MICH
Michigan
WolverinesBalancedBig Ten Conference1-0#97 (-3.83)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
30· DOverall
Offense
14· FRating
12· FPer play
32· DConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
57· CRating
61· CPer play
43· CConsistency
Situational
64· CRed-zone O
88· BRed-zone D
3· F3rd down O
26· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.056
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.027
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.223
Defensive EPA/play
-0.181
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.8%
Def Success Rate
43.3%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
14.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
14.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.043
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.40
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
-0.69
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.10
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.42
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.40
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns
Peer Context
Where Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense14th
Opp-adjusted defense68th
Offensive EPA/play12th
Defensive EPA/play62th
Offensive success rate31th
Explosiveness7th
Defensive havoc31th
Points per drive23th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Michigan State2020OA -0.049 / +0.004similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive EPA4052Michigan State2023OA -0.078 / -0.038similar: passing offense, turnover rate, offensive EPA3833Eastern Michigan2023OA -0.162 / -0.059similar: rushing offense, havoc rate, passing offense3744Texas A&M2022OA -0.058 / +0.086similar: passing offense, pass defense, havoc rate3605Charlotte2023OA -0.104 / +0.014similar: defensive EPA, run defense, passing offense358
2026 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Western Michigan | 13-12 | W | -27.5 | L | 49.5 | U |
| 2 | vs Oklahoma | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 3 | vs UTEP | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 4 | vs Iowa | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 5 | @ Minnesota | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 7 | vs Penn State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 8 | vs Indiana | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 9 | @ Rutgers | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 10 | vs Michigan State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 11 | @ Oregon | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 12 | vs UCLA | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| 13 | @ Ohio State | - | - | - | - | - | - |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
L
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.223 | 10th | -0.181 | 65th |
| Red Zone | +0.274 | 65th | -0.807 | 89th |
| Third Down | -0.970 | 3th | +0.208 | 26th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.223 | 12th | -0.181 | 62th |
| First Half | -0.205 | 17th | -0.400 | 84th |
| Second Half | -0.252 | 15th | +0.020 | 38th |
| Early Downs | +0.031 | 49th | -0.156 | 61th |
| Passing Downs | -0.655 | 3th | -0.162 | 61th |
| Standard Downs | -0.046 | 37th | -0.192 | 61th |
| Goal to Go | +0.176 | 38th | - | 0th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 47.9%Rush 52.1%
Havoc/Game
10.0
Havoc Rate
14.7%
TO Margin
-3.0
Explosive/G
7.0
Yards/Game
276.0
Pts/Drive
1.40
3rd Down%
30.0%
3&Out%
40.0%
Team Statistics
2026 season totals across 1 games — Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Michigan | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 13 | 12 |
| Points / Game | 13.0 | 12.0 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 12 | 16 |
| Rushing | 4 | 10 |
| Passing | 6 | 4 |
| Penalty | 2 | 2 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 25 | 46 |
| Yards | 106 | 132 |
| Yards / Carry | 4.2 | 2.9 |
| Yards / Game | 106.0 | 132.0 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 21 |
| Completions | 12 | 15 |
| Completion % | 52.2% | 71.4% |
| Yards | 170 | 89 |
| Yards / Attempt | 7.4 | 4.2 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Interceptions | 1 | 0 |
| Passer Rating | 119.91 | 107.03 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 48 | 67 |
| Yards | 276 | 221 |
| Yards / Play | 5.8 | 3.3 |
| Yards / Game | 276.0 | 221.0 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 2 | 1 |
| Yards | 9 | 0 |
| Average | 4.5 | 0.0 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 1 | 0 |
| Yards | 18 | 0 |
| Average | 18.0 | — |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 6 | 6 |
| Yards | 268 | 240 |
| Average | 44.7 | 40.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 0 | 1 |
| Yards | 0 | 4 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 2 | 3 |
| Lost | 2 | 0 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 9 | 5 |
| Yards | 80 | 40 |
| Yards / Game | 80.0 | 40.0 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 19:52 | 40:08 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 10 | 18 |
| Conversions | 3 | 8 |
| Conversion % | 30.0% | 44.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 1 |
| Conversions | 1 | 0 |
| Conversion % | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 1 | 3 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 1 | 2 |
| Score % | 100.0% | 66.7% |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| TD % | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 4 |
| Made | 0 | 4 |
| Pct | — | 100.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 1 | 0 |
| Made | 1 | 0 |
| Pct | 100.0% | — |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 0 | 0 |
| Made | 0 | 0 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.