Fourth Down Data
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PSU

Penn State

Nittany LionsRun-Heavy
Big Ten Conference1-0#13 (+9.63)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

90· A-Overall
Offense
78· BRating
77· BPer play
38· DConsistency
56· CBig plays
Defense
92· A-Rating
72· BPer play
70· BConsistency
Situational
40· CRed-zone O
59· C3rd down O
93· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.030
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.032
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.233
Defensive EPA/play
-0.237
lower = better
Off Success Rate
47.2%
Def Success Rate
35.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
11.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.471
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
4.43

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.78
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.15
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.29
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.24
own return game
Return Defense
+0.09
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#13
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 13 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Penn State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
73th
Opp-adjusted defense
72th
Offensive EPA/play
77th
Defensive EPA/play
72th
Offensive success rate
45th
Explosiveness
57th
Defensive havoc
72th
Points per drive
74th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Michigan2019OA +0.070 / +0.125similar: rushing offense, run defense, passing offense4042Oklahoma2026OA +0.012 / -0.012similar: passing offense, takeaway rate, turnover rate4043Miami (OH)2021OA -0.032 / +0.021similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, run defense3724Fresno State2022OA +0.017 / +0.055similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, turnover rate3715NC State2021OA +0.021 / +0.101similar: run defense, pass defense, turnover rate370

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Marshall45-0W-23.5W52U
2@ Temple------
3vs Buffalo------
4vs Wisconsin------
5@ Northwestern------
6vs USC------
7@ Michigan------
9vs Purdue------
10@ Washington------
11vs Minnesota------
12vs Rutgers------
13@ Maryland------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off51thRush Off66thRed Zone Off40th3rd Down Off59thPass Def63thRush Def96thRed Zone Def0th3rd Down Def94th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.10063th-0.37092th
Red Zone-0.07540th-0th
Third Down+0.20659th-0.85294th
No Garbage Time+0.23377th-0.23772th
First Half+0.18569th-0.19864th
Second Half+0.02348th-0.64199th
Early Downs+0.06057th-0.20469th
Passing Downs+0.05551th-0.18563th
Standard Downs+0.11566th-0.47996th
Goal to Go-1.0601th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 37.5%Rush 62.5%
Havoc/Game
14.0
Havoc Rate
25.5%
TO Margin
+2.0
Explosive/G
9.0
Yards/Game
487.0
Pts/Drive
4.43
3rd Down%
50.0%
3&Out%
14.3%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Penn State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatPenn StateOpponents
Scoring
Points450
Points / Game45.00.0
First Downs
Total2511
Rushing92
Passing156
Penalty13
Rushing
Attempts4526
Yards16344
Yards / Carry3.61.7
Yards / Game163.044.0
Touchdowns20
Passing
Attempts2728
Completions2019
Completion %74.1%67.9%
Yards324103
Yards / Attempt12.03.7
Touchdowns40
Interceptions01
Passer Rating223.7691.61
Total Offense
Plays7254
Yards487147
Yards / Play6.82.7
Yards / Game487.0147.0
Punt Returns
Returns30
Yards410
Average13.7—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns13
Yards3441
Average34.013.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts48
Yards173341
Average43.342.6
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles02
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties44
Yards4545
Yards / Game45.045.0
Time of Possession
Per Game36:1323:47
Third Downs
Attempts1611
Conversions81
Conversion %50.0%9.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts21
Conversions20
Conversion %100.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips50
Scores (TD + FG)40
Score %80.0%—
Touchdowns30
TD %60.0%—
Field Goals
Attempts11
Made10
Pct100.0%0.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts60
Made60
Pct100.0%—
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →