Fourth Down Data
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ORST

Oregon State

BeaversPass-Heavy
Pac-12 Conference0-1#71 (+0.83)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

48· COverall
Offense
57· CRating
46· CPer play
40· CConsistency
30· DBig plays
Defense
43· CRating
22· DPer play
11· FConsistency
Situational
95· ARed-zone O
80· BRed-zone D
52· C3rd down O
12· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.042
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.008
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.058
Defensive EPA/play
+0.099
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.2%
Def Success Rate
54.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
20.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.041
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.75

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.09
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.01
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.19
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.11
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Oregon State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
83th
Opp-adjusted defense
45th
Offensive EPA/play
46th
Defensive EPA/play
23th
Offensive success rate
36th
Explosiveness
31th
Defensive havoc
26th
Points per drive
31th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1SMU2018OA -0.058 / -0.007similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, turnover rate3362Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: havoc rate, passing offense, defensive EPA3233San José State2019OA +0.064 / -0.097similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA3224Delaware2025OA -0.084 / -0.156similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, defensive EPA3195Colorado2023OA +0.039 / -0.084similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense319

2026 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Houston20-33L+21.0W50.5O
2vs Texas Tech------
3vs Montana------
4@ UTEP------
5@ Colorado State------
6vs San Diego State------
7vs Washington State------
9@ Fresno State------
10vs Texas State------
11@ Boise State------
12vs Utah State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off47thRush Off58thRed Zone Off96th3rd Down Off53thPass Def32thRush Def25thRed Zone Def80th3rd Down Def12th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05850th+0.09920th
Red Zone+0.78296th-0.65580th
Third Down+0.12753th+0.54712th
No Garbage Time+0.05847th+0.09922th
First Half-0.12327th+0.04531th
Second Half+0.23478th+0.17123th
Early Downs+0.06358th-0.01740th
Passing Downs+0.03447th+0.15032th
Standard Downs+0.07658th+0.07425th
Goal to Go+0.82388th+0.34953th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 65.8%Rush 34.2%
Havoc/Game
10.0
Havoc Rate
13.2%
TO Margin
+2.0
Explosive/G
15.0
Yards/Game
402.0
Pts/Drive
1.75
3rd Down%
26.7%
3&Out%
16.7%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Oregon State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatOregon StateOpponents
Scoring
Points2033
Points / Game20.033.0
First Downs
Total2024
Rushing210
Passing1712
Penalty12
Rushing
Attempts2541
Yards26228
Yards / Carry1.05.6
Yards / Game26.0228.0
Touchdowns23
Passing
Attempts4831
Completions2920
Completion %60.4%64.5%
Yards376305
Yards / Attempt7.89.8
Touchdowns11
Interceptions01
Passer Rating133.09151.35
Total Offense
Plays7372
Yards402533
Yards / Play5.57.4
Yards / Game402.0533.0
Punt Returns
Returns01
Yards00
Average—0.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns41
Yards7324
Average18.324.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts43
Yards191127
Average47.842.3
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards240
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles22
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties510
Yards4265
Yards / Game42.065.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1030:50
Third Downs
Attempts1513
Conversions47
Conversion %26.7%53.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts51
Conversions21
Conversion %40.0%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips35
Scores (TD + FG)34
Score %100.0%80.0%
Touchdowns32
TD %100.0%40.0%
Field Goals
Attempts12
Made02
Pct0.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts24
Made23
Pct100.0%75.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →