Fourth Down Data
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COLO

Colorado

BuffaloesBalanced
Big 12 Conference4-8#94 (-3.44)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

31· DOverall
Offense
57· CRating
52· CPer play
45· CConsistency
32· DBig plays
Defense
11· FRating
9· FPer play
9· FConsistency
Situational
97· A+Red-zone O
37· DRed-zone D
62· C3rd down O
15· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.039
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.084
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.016
Defensive EPA/play
+0.121
lower = better
Off Success Rate
45.3%
Def Success Rate
49.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
27.0%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.105
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.070
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.23

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.29
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.29
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.08
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.10
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#94
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#117
model 23 higher
Recruiting Rank
#43
recruiting 51 spots higher
8 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Colorado ranks among all FBS teams in 2023 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
67th
Opp-adjusted defense
11th
Offensive EPA/play
53th
Defensive EPA/play
9th
Offensive success rate
36th
Explosiveness
32th
Defensive havoc
15th
Points per drive
55th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Oregon State2026OA +0.042 / -0.008similar: defensive success rate, offensive success rate, rushing offense3192Massachusetts2018OA -0.043 / -0.117similar: passing offense, TD drive rate, pass defense2933Mississippi State2025OA +0.008 / -0.047similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA2824Arkansas State2019OA +0.036 / -0.048similar: run defense, offensive success rate, havoc rate2805Georgia State2022OA +0.008 / +0.002similar: offensive EPA, TD drive rate, takeaway rate277

2023 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ TCU45-42W+20.5W63.5O
2vs Nebraska36-14W-1.0W57.5U
3vs Colorado State43-35W-23.3L60.5O
4@ Oregon6-42L+21.0L70U
5vs USC41-48L+21.5W73.5O
6@ Arizona State27-24W-11.0L59O
7vs Stanford43-46L----
9@ UCLA16-28L+17.0W63.5U
10vs Oregon State19-26L+13.5W62U
11vs Arizona31-34L+4.5L64O
12@ Washington State14-56L----
13@ Utah17-23L+22.0W52U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
6-6
50.0%
Straight Up
4-8
33.3%
Home ATS4-2
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS1-3
Underdog ATS6-2
Last 5 ATS
WWWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off61thRush Off51thRed Zone Off98th3rd Down Off62thPass Def20thRush Def10thRed Zone Def38th3rd Down Def15th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.02456th+0.10710th
Red Zone+0.34098th+0.03738th
Third Down+0.24262th+0.36315th
No Garbage Time+0.02756th+0.1179th
First Half-0.07920th+0.05133th
Second Half+0.13392th+0.1654th
Early Downs-0.06038th-0.01440th
Passing Downs+0.08561th+0.14120th
Standard Downs-0.01251th+0.09010th
Goal to Go+0.11369th+0.14831th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 57.0%Rush 43.0%
Havoc/Game
12.5
Havoc Rate
16.2%
TO Margin
+0.8
Explosive/G
13.3
Yards/Game
363.6
Pts/Drive
2.23
3rd Down%
39.1%
3&Out%
25.8%

Team Statistics

2023 season totals across 12 games — Colorado vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatColoradoOpponents
Scoring
Points338418
Points / Game28.234.8
First Downs
Total254295
Rushing70111
Passing153159
Penalty3125
Rushing
Attempts358451
Yards8272,117
Yards / Carry2.34.7
Yards / Game68.9176.4
Touchdowns1224
Passing
Attempts474417
Completions323269
Completion %68.1%64.5%
Yards3,5363,323
Yards / Attempt7.58.0
Touchdowns2928
Interceptions410
Passer Rating149.31148.81
Total Offense
Plays832868
Yards4,3635,440
Yards / Play5.26.3
Yards / Game363.6453.3
Punt Returns
Returns1718
Yards176136
Average10.47.6
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns1425
Yards305597
Average21.823.9
Touchdowns01
Punting
Punts6647
Yards2,8742,048
Average43.543.6
Interception Returns
Returns104
Yards7433
Touchdowns10
Fumbles
Fumbles1219
Lost710
Penalties
Penalties10793
Yards854883
Yards / Game71.273.6
Time of Possession
Per Game27:3332:10
Third Downs
Attempts174165
Conversions6877
Conversion %39.1%46.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts1516
Conversions1010
Conversion %66.7%62.5%
Red Zone
Trips3854
Scores (TD + FG)3742
Score %97.4%77.8%
Touchdowns2835
TD %73.7%64.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1917
Made1410
Pct73.7%58.8%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3751
Made3650
Pct97.3%98.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts65
Made31
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →