Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
BOIS

Boise State

BroncosBalanced
Pac-12 Conference0-1#53 (+3.44)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

61· COverall
Offense
70· BRating
48· CPer play
24· DConsistency
20· DBig plays
Defense
50· CRating
18· DPer play
14· FConsistency
Situational
50· CRed-zone O
39· DRed-zone D
16· D3rd down O
35· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.041
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.017
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.059
Defensive EPA/play
+0.140
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.5%
Def Success Rate
52.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
18.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.081
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.08

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.32
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.20
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.37
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Boise State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
81th
Opp-adjusted defense
37th
Offensive EPA/play
48th
Defensive EPA/play
18th
Offensive success rate
23th
Explosiveness
20th
Defensive havoc
39th
Points per drive
39th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas State2022OA -0.037 / -0.160similar: turnover rate, run defense, pass defense3702Michigan State2025OA +0.075 / -0.070similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, turnover rate3343Stanford2019OA +0.023 / -0.058similar: defensive success rate, havoc rate, defensive EPA3244UL Monroe2022OA +0.020 / -0.119similar: defensive EPA, takeaway rate, defensive success rate3145Southern Miss2023OA -0.029 / -0.066similar: pass defense, havoc rate, defensive EPA314

2026 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Oregon27-34L+24.5W51.5O
2vs Memphis------
3vs South Dakota------
4@ Western Michigan------
5vs Utah State------
6@ Fresno State------
8@ Washington State------
9vs Texas State------
10@ Colorado State------
11vs Oregon State------
12vs San Diego State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off39thRush Off68thRed Zone Off50th3rd Down Off16thPass Def47thRush Def8thRed Zone Def40th3rd Down Def36th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05952th+0.14015th
Red Zone+0.09450th+0.12040th
Third Down-0.37816th+0.06736th
No Garbage Time+0.05950th+0.14019th
First Half+0.03345th-0.07143th
Second Half+0.08554th+0.4037th
Early Downs+0.20681th+0.5080th
Passing Downs-0.06839th-0.03647th
Standard Downs+0.11968th+0.2218th
Goal to Go-0th+0.90919th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 44.6%Rush 55.4%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
16.7%
TO Margin
+1.0
Explosive/G
12.0
Yards/Game
274.0
Pts/Drive
2.08
3rd Down%
26.7%
3&Out%
38.5%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Boise State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatBoise StateOpponents
Scoring
Points2734
Points / Game27.034.0
First Downs
Total1818
Rushing76
Passing711
Penalty41
Rushing
Attempts3625
Yards93119
Yards / Carry2.64.8
Yards / Game93.0119.0
Touchdowns01
Passing
Attempts2938
Completions1528
Completion %51.7%73.7%
Yards181378
Yards / Attempt6.29.9
Touchdowns33
Interceptions00
Passer Rating138.29183.29
Total Offense
Plays6563
Yards274497
Yards / Play4.27.9
Yards / Game274.0497.0
Punt Returns
Returns11
Yards21
Average2.01.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns01
Yards021
Average—21.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts63
Yards254144
Average42.348.0
Interception Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles01
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties310
Yards2590
Yards / Game25.090.0
Time of Possession
Per Game32:5027:10
Third Downs
Attempts1512
Conversions44
Conversion %26.7%33.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts33
Conversions20
Conversion %66.7%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips43
Scores (TD + FG)43
Score %100.0%100.0%
Touchdowns22
TD %50.0%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts22
Made22
Pct100.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts34
Made34
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →