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ARST
Arkansas State
Red WolvesBalancedSun Belt Conference3-9#96 (-3.17)
Grades
Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.
29· DOverall
Offense
27· DRating
26· DPer play
13· FConsistency
15· DBig plays
Defense
7· FRating
10· FPer play
16· DConsistency
Situational
27· DRed-zone O
1· FRed-zone D
13· F3rd down O
37· D3rd down D
Analytical Fingerprint
SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.
Opp-Adj Offense
-0.037
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.160
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.097
Defensive EPA/play
+0.106
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.4%
Def Success Rate
48.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.204
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.138
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.78
Special Teams
Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.
Net ST Rating
+2.76
expected pts/game
Kicking
+1.25
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.33
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.38
own return game
Return Defense
+0.80
vs opponent returns
Performance vs Perception
Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.
Model Rank
#96
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#103
model 7 higher
Recruiting Rank
#75
recruiting 21 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits
Peer Context
Where Arkansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2022 (percentile).
Opp-adjusted offense39th
Opp-adjusted defense3th
Offensive EPA/play26th
Defensive EPA/play11th
Offensive success rate13th
Explosiveness15th
Defensive havoc49th
Points per drive30th
Historical Fingerprint
Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.
1Boise State2026OA +0.041 / -0.017similar: turnover rate, run defense, pass defense3712Indiana2023OA -0.009 / -0.034similar: TD drive rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA3573San Diego State2024OA -0.047 / -0.034similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3544Southern Miss2023OA -0.029 / -0.066similar: defensive success rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3305Michigan State2025OA +0.075 / -0.070similar: turnover rate, passing offense, defensive EPA329
2022 Schedule & Results
12 games
| Wk | Opponent | Score | W/L | Spread | ATS | Total | O/U |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | vs Grambling State | 58-3 | W | -27.8 | W | 58.25 | O |
| 2 | @ Ohio State | 12-45 | L | +44.5 | W | 68.5 | U |
| 3 | @ Memphis | 32-44 | L | +14.5 | W | 64 | O |
| 4 | @ Old Dominion | 26-29 | L | +5.5 | W | 56.5 | U |
| 5 | vs UL Monroe | 45-28 | W | -7.0 | W | 59 | O |
| 6 | vs James Madison | 20-42 | L | +11.0 | L | 55.5 | O |
| 7 | @ Southern Miss | 19-20 | L | +4.5 | W | 55 | U |
| 8 | @ Louisiana | 18-38 | L | +6.5 | L | 52 | O |
| 9 | vs South Alabama | 3-31 | L | +10.0 | L | 54.5 | U |
| 11 | vs Massachusetts | 35-33 | W | -17.0 | L | 49.5 | O |
| 12 | @ Texas State | 13-16 | L | +5.5 | W | 51 | U |
| 13 | vs Troy | 19-48 | L | +13.5 | L | 46.5 | O |
Betting Profile
ATS Record
7-5
58.3%
O/U Record
7-5
58.3%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-4
Away ATS5-1
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS5-4
Last 5 ATS
LLLWL
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.
Situational Profile
Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.
| Situation | OFF EPA | OFF Rank | DEF EPA | DEF Rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overall | -0.102 | 21th | +0.072 | 18th |
| Red Zone | -0.119 | 27th | +0.344 | 1th |
| Third Down | -0.146 | 13th | +0.109 | 38th |
| No Garbage Time | -0.085 | 28th | +0.119 | 9th |
| First Half | -0.079 | 35th | -0.038 | 56th |
| Second Half | -0.126 | 17th | +0.184 | 1th |
| Early Downs | -0.073 | 24th | +0.049 | 18th |
| Passing Downs | -0.166 | 15th | +0.037 | 33th |
| Standard Downs | -0.057 | 30th | +0.090 | 11th |
| Goal to Go | -0.133 | 32th | +0.298 | 10th |
Style & Tendencies
Pass 51.0%Rush 49.0%
Havoc/Game
13.3
Havoc Rate
18.3%
TO Margin
+0.2
Explosive/G
11.8
Yards/Game
314.8
Pts/Drive
1.78
3rd Down%
29.3%
3&Out%
32.1%
Team Statistics
2022 season totals across 12 games — Arkansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
| Stat | Arkansas State | Opponents |
|---|---|---|
| Scoring | ||
| Points | 300 | 377 |
| Points / Game | 25.0 | 31.4 |
| First Downs | ||
| Total | 206 | 249 |
| Rushing | 66 | 114 |
| Passing | 123 | 110 |
| Penalty | 17 | 25 |
| Rushing | ||
| Attempts | 381 | 484 |
| Yards | 1,058 | 1,949 |
| Yards / Carry | 2.8 | 4.0 |
| Yards / Game | 88.2 | 162.4 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 23 |
| Passing | ||
| Attempts | 396 | 351 |
| Completions | 247 | 212 |
| Completion % | 62.4% | 60.4% |
| Yards | 2,719 | 2,912 |
| Yards / Attempt | 6.9 | 8.3 |
| Touchdowns | 16 | 25 |
| Interceptions | 5 | 6 |
| Passer Rating | 130.86 | 150.17 |
| Total Offense | ||
| Plays | 777 | 835 |
| Yards | 3,777 | 4,861 |
| Yards / Play | 4.9 | 5.8 |
| Yards / Game | 314.8 | 405.1 |
| Punt Returns | ||
| Returns | 16 | 26 |
| Yards | 96 | 174 |
| Average | 6.0 | 6.7 |
| Touchdowns | 0 | 0 |
| Kickoff Returns | ||
| Returns | 52 | 26 |
| Yards | 1,106 | 451 |
| Average | 21.3 | 17.3 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 0 |
| Punting | ||
| Punts | 70 | 62 |
| Yards | 3,019 | 2,543 |
| Average | 43.1 | 41.0 |
| Interception Returns | ||
| Returns | 6 | 5 |
| Yards | 115 | 94 |
| Touchdowns | 1 | 2 |
| Fumbles | ||
| Fumbles | 12 | 18 |
| Lost | 4 | 5 |
| Penalties | ||
| Penalties | 68 | 78 |
| Yards | 654 | 683 |
| Yards / Game | 54.5 | 56.9 |
| Time of Possession | ||
| Per Game | 28:60 | 31:00 |
| Third Downs | ||
| Attempts | 167 | 173 |
| Conversions | 49 | 63 |
| Conversion % | 29.3% | 36.4% |
| Fourth Downs | ||
| Attempts | 23 | 25 |
| Conversions | 14 | 16 |
| Conversion % | 60.9% | 64.0% |
| Red Zone | ||
| Trips | 36 | 36 |
| Scores (TD + FG) | 33 | 33 |
| Score % | 91.7% | 91.7% |
| Touchdowns | 22 | 27 |
| TD % | 61.1% | 75.0% |
| Field Goals | ||
| Attempts | 18 | 12 |
| Made | 17 | 9 |
| Pct | 94.4% | 75.0% |
| PAT Kicking | ||
| Attempts | 32 | 42 |
| Made | 31 | 42 |
| Pct | 96.9% | 100.0% |
| Two-Point Conversions | ||
| Attempts | 3 | 8 |
| Made | 1 | 3 |
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.