Fourth Down Data
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RICE

Rice

OwlsRun-Heavy
American Conference5-8#126 (-15.98)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

7· FOverall
Offense
4· FRating
22· DPer play
4· FConsistency
29· DBig plays
Defense
22· DRating
15· DPer play
59· CConsistency
Situational
86· BRed-zone O
5· FRed-zone D
36· D3rd down O
7· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.143
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.070
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.090
Defensive EPA/play
+0.086
lower = better
Off Success Rate
39.4%
Def Success Rate
45.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.4%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.176
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.119
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.72

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.44
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.17
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.58
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.07
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#126
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#118
market 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 47 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where Rice ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
5th
Opp-adjusted defense
21th
Offensive EPA/play
22th
Defensive EPA/play
16th
Offensive success rate
3th
Explosiveness
30th
Defensive havoc
32th
Points per drive
16th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Arkansas State2022OA -0.037 / -0.160similar: TD drive rate, takeaway rate, turnover rate3172Florida International2020OA -0.050 / -0.019similar: offensive success rate, takeaway rate, turnover rate3163Michigan State2025OA +0.075 / -0.070similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, defensive success rate3144Vanderbilt2022OA +0.014 / -0.067similar: defensive EPA, run defense, passing offense3125Marshall2026OA -0.032 / -0.030similar: pass defense, offensive success rate, defensive EPA312

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Louisiana14-12W+10.0W48.5U
2vs Houston9-35L+13.5L38.5O
3vs Prairie View A&M38-17W-2.5W42.5O
4@ Charlotte28-17W----
5@ Navy13-21L+14.5W25.5O
6vs Florida Atlantic21-27L-4.0L54.5U
7@ UTSA13-61L+9.5L48.5O
9vs UConn37-34W+10.0W49.5O
10vs Memphis14-38L----
11vs UAB24-17W-6.5W47.5U
13vs North Texas24-56L+18.5L56.5O
14@ South Florida3-52L+28.5L57.5U
19@ Texas State10-41L----

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-8
38.5%
O/U Record
8-5
61.5%
Straight Up
5-8
38.5%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS3-3
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS3-6
Last 5 ATS
WWLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off11thRush Off47thRed Zone Off87th3rd Down Off36thPass Def4thRush Def30thRed Zone Def5th3rd Down Def7th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.07528th+0.09410th
Red Zone+0.18187th+0.2555th
Third Down-0.00136th+0.3087th
No Garbage Time-0.08322th+0.08616th
First Half-0.06028th+0.1477th
Second Half-0.09016th+0.03833th
Early Downs-0.06224th+0.03722th
Passing Downs-0.21411th+0.1954th
Standard Downs+0.00347th+0.04130th
Goal to Go+0.28388th+0.02544th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 25.7%Rush 74.3%
Havoc/Game
11.0
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
-0.3
Explosive/G
12.4
Yards/Game
302.4
Pts/Drive
1.72
3rd Down%
34.4%
3&Out%
32.0%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — Rice vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatRiceOpponents
Scoring
Points248428
Points / Game19.132.9
First Downs
Total222265
Rushing143113
Passing62122
Penalty1730
Rushing
Attempts647458
Yards2,6622,128
Yards / Carry4.14.6
Yards / Game204.8163.7
Touchdowns2026
Passing
Attempts224375
Completions148231
Completion %66.1%61.6%
Yards1,2693,122
Yards / Attempt5.78.3
Touchdowns1125
Interceptions43
Passer Rating126.29151.93
Total Offense
Plays871833
Yards3,9315,250
Yards / Play4.56.3
Yards / Game302.4403.8
Punt Returns
Returns923
Yards39224
Average4.39.7
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2311
Yards443171
Average19.315.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6949
Yards3,0942,069
Average44.842.2
Interception Returns
Returns34
Yards7121
Touchdowns02
Fumbles
Fumbles179
Lost74
Penalties
Penalties6274
Yards644643
Yards / Game49.549.5
Time of Possession
Per Game32:4327:17
Third Downs
Attempts195170
Conversions6774
Conversion %34.4%43.5%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3824
Conversions2114
Conversion %55.3%58.3%
Red Zone
Trips3142
Scores (TD + FG)2842
Score %90.3%100.0%
Touchdowns2131
TD %67.7%73.8%
Field Goals
Attempts1420
Made1116
Pct78.6%80.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2952
Made2952
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts12
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →