Fourth Down Data
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SDSU

San Diego State

AztecsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference3-9#124 (-7.82)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

8· FOverall
Offense
7· FRating
19· DPer play
7· FConsistency
15· DBig plays
Defense
15· DRating
19· DPer play
28· DConsistency
Situational
16· DRed-zone O
1· FRed-zone D
35· D3rd down O
3· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.047
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.034
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.087
Defensive EPA/play
+0.067
lower = better
Off Success Rate
41.3%
Def Success Rate
47.2%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
21.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
25.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.154
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.037
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.53

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.55
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.16
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.30
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.06
own return game
Return Defense
+0.15
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#124
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#116
market 8 higher
Recruiting Rank
#70
recruiting 54 spots higher
1 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where San Diego State ranks among all FBS teams in 2024 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
11th
Opp-adjusted defense
17th
Offensive EPA/play
19th
Defensive EPA/play
19th
Offensive success rate
9th
Explosiveness
15th
Defensive havoc
18th
Points per drive
10th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Stanford2023OA -0.011 / -0.121similar: TD drive rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate3862UConn2017OA -0.032 / -0.091similar: havoc rate, TD drive rate, takeaway rate3703Arkansas State2022OA -0.037 / -0.160similar: defensive success rate, pass defense, offensive success rate3544Stanford2019OA +0.023 / -0.058similar: takeaway rate, rushing offense, defensive EPA3475UCLA2018OA +0.036 / -0.086similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, pass defense339

2024 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs East Texas A&M45-14W----
2vs Oregon State0-21L+4.5L56U
3@ California10-31L+18.5L48U
5@ Central Michigan21-22L+2.5W53.5U
6vs Hawai'i27-24W-2.5W48.5O
7@ Wyoming27-24W-2.5W41.5O
9vs Washington State26-29L+23.5L56O
10@ Boise State24-56L-3.0L66.5U
11vs New Mexico16-21L----
12@ UNLV20-41L+20.5L54O
13@ Utah State20-41L+4.5L61P
14vs Air Force20-31L+3.5L43.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-7
36.4%
O/U Record
5-5-1
50.0%
Straight Up
3-9
25.0%
Home ATS2-3
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-1
Underdog ATS2-6
Last 5 ATS
LLLLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off54thRush Off13thRed Zone Off16th3rd Down Off35thPass Def15thRush Def36thRed Zone Def1th3rd Down Def3th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04029th+0.06720th
Red Zone-0.17616th+0.3711th
Third Down+0.02835th+0.3903th
No Garbage Time-0.07521th+0.07617th
First Half-0.07826th+0.02634th
Second Half+0.00542th+0.10516th
Early Downs-0.08915th+0.01134th
Passing Downs+0.03954th+0.14215th
Standard Downs-0.08913th+0.03236th
Goal to Go-0.13227th-0.00548th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 46.9%Rush 53.1%
Havoc/Game
11.2
Havoc Rate
15.2%
TO Margin
+0.3
Explosive/G
13.0
Yards/Game
334.6
Pts/Drive
1.53
3rd Down%
36.2%
3&Out%
18.8%

Team Statistics

2024 season totals across 12 games — San Diego State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatSan Diego StateOpponents
Scoring
Points256355
Points / Game21.329.6
First Downs
Total222279
Rushing83135
Passing114113
Penalty2531
Rushing
Attempts424509
Yards1,5472,487
Yards / Carry3.64.9
Yards / Game128.9207.3
Touchdowns1325
Passing
Attempts375343
Completions234223
Completion %62.4%65.0%
Yards2,4682,569
Yards / Attempt6.67.5
Touchdowns1521
Interceptions87
Passer Rating126.62144.05
Total Offense
Plays799852
Yards4,0155,056
Yards / Play5.05.9
Yards / Game334.6421.3
Punt Returns
Returns1821
Yards108115
Average6.05.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns2819
Yards561305
Average20.016.1
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts6048
Yards2,6991,887
Average45.039.3
Interception Returns
Returns78
Yards21368
Touchdowns21
Fumbles
Fumbles611
Lost15
Penalties
Penalties10978
Yards981766
Yards / Game81.863.8
Time of Possession
Per Game27:0832:56
Third Downs
Attempts177169
Conversions6480
Conversion %36.2%47.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3225
Conversions1714
Conversion %53.1%56.0%
Red Zone
Trips3846
Scores (TD + FG)3042
Score %78.9%91.3%
Touchdowns1836
TD %47.4%78.3%
Field Goals
Attempts1714
Made149
Pct82.4%64.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts2744
Made2642
Pct96.3%95.5%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts54
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →