Fourth Down Data
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NDSU

North Dakota State

BisonRun-Heavy
Mountain West4-0#12 (+5.48)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

91· A-Overall
Offense
85· BRating
62· CPer play
53· CConsistency
35· DBig plays
Defense
90· A-Rating
95· APer play
33· DConsistency
Situational
6· FRed-zone O
74· BRed-zone D
32· D3rd down O
93· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.008
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.032
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.082
Defensive EPA/play
-0.247
lower = better
Off Success Rate
46.1%
Def Success Rate
46.6%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.0%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
26.1%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.329
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.010
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.21

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.98
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.46
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.50
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.03
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#12
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Top 25 · after Week 3
NR
not in the AP Top 25
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where North Dakota State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
61th
Opp-adjusted defense
95th
Offensive EPA/play
63th
Defensive EPA/play
96th
Offensive success rate
37th
Explosiveness
36th
Defensive havoc
60th
Points per drive
82th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Troy2022OA +0.038 / +0.141similar: defensive EPA, havoc rate, run defense3242Boise State2017OA +0.087 / +0.050similar: pass defense, offensive EPA, havoc rate3203Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: turnover rate, run defense, pass defense3164Michigan2019OA +0.070 / +0.125similar: pass defense, rushing offense, passing offense2955Syracuse2022OA +0.073 / +0.046similar: offensive EPA, turnover rate, havoc rate295

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs Jacksonville State33-7W-6.5W46.5U
1vs Fordham38-0W-41.5L54.5U
2@ Air Force38-32W-1.5W47.5O
3@ Sacramento State31-10W-26.5L50.5U
5vs Wyoming------
6@ UNLV------
7vs Nevada------
8@ New Mexico------
9vs UTEP------
11@ Hawai'i------
12vs Northern Illinois------
13@ San José State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
2-2
50.0%
O/U Record
1-3
25.0%
Straight Up
4-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-1
Away ATS1-1
Favorite ATS2-2
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
WLWL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against pre-game consensus lines. Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently at sources that use a different line.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off50thRush Off55thRed Zone Off6th3rd Down Off32thPass Def100thRush Def37thRed Zone Def74th3rd Down Def94th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.03753th-0.18893th
Red Zone-0.4296th-0.21874th
Third Down-0.04732th-0.37494th
No Garbage Time+0.07761th-0.26096th
First Half+0.13874th-0.384100th
Second Half-0.12715th-0.06259th
Early Downs-0.00243th-0.01140th
Passing Downs+0.05650th-0.540100th
Standard Downs+0.02855th-0.00937th
Goal to Go+0.65093th+0.71410th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 38.0%Rush 62.0%
Havoc/Game
11.8
Havoc Rate
19.7%
TO Margin
+2.0
Explosive/G
11.3
Yards/Game
370.5
Pts/Drive
3.21
3rd Down%
42.3%
3&Out%
12.1%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 4 games — North Dakota State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth Dakota StateOpponents
Scoring
Points14049
Points / Game35.012.3
First Downs
Total7663
Rushing3026
Passing3829
Penalty88
Rushing
Attempts158134
Yards635401
Yards / Carry4.03.0
Yards / Game158.8100.3
Touchdowns73
Passing
Attempts97100
Completions6558
Completion %67.0%58.0%
Yards847618
Yards / Attempt8.76.2
Touchdowns73
Interceptions27
Passer Rating160.05105.81
Total Offense
Plays255234
Yards1,4821,019
Yards / Play5.84.4
Yards / Game370.5254.8
Punt Returns
Returns52
Yards665
Average13.22.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns35
Yards5085
Average16.717.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts918
Yards390802
Average43.344.6
Interception Returns
Returns72
Yards13785
Touchdowns11
Fumbles
Fumbles17
Lost03
Penalties
Penalties2826
Yards244233
Yards / Game61.058.3
Time of Possession
Per Game32:1827:43
Third Downs
Attempts5251
Conversions2219
Conversion %42.3%37.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts116
Conversions84
Conversion %72.7%66.7%
Red Zone
Trips139
Scores (TD + FG)115
Score %84.6%55.6%
Touchdowns84
TD %61.5%44.4%
Field Goals
Attempts83
Made71
Pct87.5%33.3%
PAT Kicking
Attempts175
Made174
Pct100.0%80.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts02
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →