Fourth Down Data
← All Teams
FSU

Florida State

SeminolesRun-Heavy
Atlantic Coast Conference1-1#106 (-4.89)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

23· DOverall
Offense
37· DRating
49· CPer play
28· DConsistency
67· CBig plays
Defense
14· FRating
20· DPer play
33· DConsistency
Situational
53· CRed-zone O
80· BRed-zone D
63· C3rd down O
0· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.001
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.100
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.065
Defensive EPA/play
+0.137
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.3%
Def Success Rate
45.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
24.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
21.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.072
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.002
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.64

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.71
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.41
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.05
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.28
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Florida State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
47th
Opp-adjusted defense
4th
Offensive EPA/play
50th
Defensive EPA/play
20th
Offensive success rate
28th
Explosiveness
68th
Defensive havoc
41th
Points per drive
47th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Old Dominion2024OA +0.012 / -0.018similar: rushing offense, passing offense, offensive success rate3872Coastal Carolina2024OA -0.004 / -0.025similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, passing offense3693Kentucky2017OA +0.002 / -0.044similar: havoc rate, passing offense, TD drive rate3454Kansas State2017OA +0.021 / +0.012similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, havoc rate3425App State2025OA -0.044 / -0.105similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, rushing offense339

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0vs New Mexico State34-17W-31.5L53.5U
1vs SMU24-27L+3.0P53.5U
3@ Alabama------
4vs Central Arkansas------
5vs Virginia------
6@ Louisville------
7@ Miami------
9vs Clemson------
10@ Boston College------
11@ Pittsburgh------
12vs NC State------
13vs Florida------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-2
0.0%
Straight Up
1-1
50.0%
Home ATS0-1
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-1
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
LP
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off57thRush Off46thRed Zone Off54th3rd Down Off64thPass Def27thRush Def21thRed Zone Def81th3rd Down Def0th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.06554th+0.13716th
Red Zone+0.13954th-0.66681th
Third Down+0.24664th+1.4800th
No Garbage Time+0.06552th+0.13720th
First Half+0.02444th+0.12020th
Second Half+0.10361th+0.15726th
Early Downs-0.02137th+0.01135th
Passing Downs+0.14857th+0.21127th
Standard Downs+0.01946th+0.08521th
Goal to Go+0.50667th-0.57689th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 37.3%Rush 62.7%
Havoc/Game
11.5
Havoc Rate
16.8%
TO Margin
+1.5
Explosive/G
16.5
Yards/Game
371.5
Pts/Drive
2.64
3rd Down%
35.7%
3&Out%
13.6%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 2 games — Florida State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatFlorida StateOpponents
Scoring
Points5844
Points / Game29.022.0
First Downs
Total3641
Rushing1711
Passing1528
Penalty42
Rushing
Attempts8454
Yards416202
Yards / Carry5.03.7
Yards / Game208.0101.0
Touchdowns50
Passing
Attempts5079
Completions2952
Completion %58.0%65.8%
Yards327702
Yards / Attempt6.58.9
Touchdowns25
Interceptions13
Passer Rating122.14153.76
Total Offense
Plays134133
Yards743904
Yards / Play5.56.8
Yards / Game371.5452.0
Punt Returns
Returns13
Yards117
Average11.02.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns52
Yards12441
Average24.820.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts85
Yards363210
Average45.442.0
Interception Returns
Returns31
Yards30
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles13
Lost12
Penalties
Penalties1014
Yards92115
Yards / Game46.057.5
Time of Possession
Per Game31:5428:06
Third Downs
Attempts2831
Conversions1018
Conversion %35.7%58.1%
Fourth Downs
Attempts52
Conversions31
Conversion %60.0%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips85
Scores (TD + FG)84
Score %100.0%80.0%
Touchdowns61
TD %75.0%20.0%
Field Goals
Attempts34
Made33
Pct100.0%75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts75
Made75
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →