Fourth Down Data
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APP

App State

MountaineersBalanced
Sun Belt Conference5-8#106 (-10.12)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

22· DOverall
Offense
34· DRating
40· CPer play
44· CConsistency
62· CBig plays
Defense
12· FRating
25· DPer play
27· DConsistency
Situational
22· DRed-zone O
48· CRed-zone D
18· D3rd down O
11· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.044
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.105
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.024
Defensive EPA/play
+0.056
lower = better
Off Success Rate
44.7%
Def Success Rate
47.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.6%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
24.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.080
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
-0.011
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.98

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.14
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.66
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.57
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.01
own return game
Return Defense
+0.07
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#106
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
#81
market 25 higher
Recruiting Rank
#79
recruiting 27 spots higher
0 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where App State ranks among all FBS teams in 2025 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
36th
Opp-adjusted defense
12th
Offensive EPA/play
40th
Defensive EPA/play
25th
Offensive success rate
37th
Explosiveness
63th
Defensive havoc
64th
Points per drive
34th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1North Carolina2018OA -0.013 / -0.057similar: run defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3532Bowling Green2022OA -0.100 / -0.065similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, takeaway rate3423Colorado State2023OA -0.066 / -0.063similar: TD drive rate, run defense, offensive EPA3414Indiana2018OA +0.054 / -0.031similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, turnover rate3415Florida State2026OA -0.001 / -0.100similar: pass defense, takeaway rate, rushing offense339

2025 Schedule & Results

13 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Charlotte34-11W----
2vs Lindenwood20-13W-19.0L40U
3@ Southern Miss22-38L-3.5L56.5O
5@ Boise State14-47L+17.0L59.5O
6vs Oregon State27-23W-3.5W60.5U
7@ Georgia State41-20W-29.5L51.5O
8vs Coastal Carolina37-45L-10.0L71.5O
9@ Old Dominion21-24L+13.5W61U
11vs Georgia Southern23-25L----
12@ James Madison10-58L+30.5L49.5O
13vs Marshall26-24W+4.5W63.5U
14vs Arkansas State29-30L-3.5L59.5U
18vs Georgia Southern10-29L+10.0L57.5U

Betting Profile

ATS Record
4-9
30.8%
O/U Record
5-8
38.5%
Straight Up
5-8
38.5%
Home ATS2-5
Away ATS2-4
Favorite ATS2-6
Underdog ATS2-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWLL
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off59thRush Off18thRed Zone Off22th3rd Down Off18thPass Def24thRush Def16thRed Zone Def49th3rd Down Def11th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.03736th+0.07815th
Red Zone-0.13222th-0.01749th
Third Down-0.12618th+0.24311th
No Garbage Time-0.01841th+0.06221th
First Half-0.05033th+0.04728th
Second Half-0.02344th+0.1118th
Early Downs-0.04930th+0.05916th
Passing Downs+0.02559th+0.07824th
Standard Downs-0.07318th+0.07916th
Goal to Go-0.6930th-0.37888th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 55.2%Rush 44.8%
Havoc/Game
14.2
Havoc Rate
19.2%
TO Margin
-0.2
Explosive/G
15.3
Yards/Game
384.2
Pts/Drive
1.98
3rd Down%
33.0%
3&Out%
27.0%

Team Statistics

2025 season totals across 13 games — App State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatApp StateOpponents
Scoring
Points314387
Points / Game24.229.8
First Downs
Total274296
Rushing8897
Passing161168
Penalty2531
Rushing
Attempts413469
Yards1,6591,933
Yards / Carry4.04.1
Yards / Game127.6148.7
Touchdowns1223
Passing
Attempts508469
Completions299296
Completion %58.9%63.1%
Yards3,3363,483
Yards / Attempt6.67.4
Touchdowns2322
Interceptions1513
Passer Rating123.06135.43
Total Offense
Plays921938
Yards4,9955,416
Yards / Play5.45.8
Yards / Game384.2416.6
Punt Returns
Returns1818
Yards197128
Average10.97.1
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns2814
Yards552288
Average19.720.6
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5650
Yards2,4542,222
Average43.844.4
Interception Returns
Returns1315
Yards99174
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1320
Lost76
Penalties
Penalties8867
Yards816645
Yards / Game62.849.6
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1831:42
Third Downs
Attempts185185
Conversions6179
Conversion %33.0%42.7%
Fourth Downs
Attempts3220
Conversions2011
Conversion %62.5%55.0%
Red Zone
Trips5057
Scores (TD + FG)4348
Score %86.0%84.2%
Touchdowns2933
TD %58.0%57.9%
Field Goals
Attempts2726
Made2118
Pct77.8%69.2%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3341
Made3339
Pct100.0%95.1%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts37
Made12
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →