Fourth Down Data
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UNC

North Carolina

Tar HeelsBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference2-9#90 (-2.07)

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

32· DOverall
Offense
34· DRating
38· DPer play
22· DConsistency
43· CBig plays
Defense
28· DRating
38· DPer play
50· CConsistency
Situational
28· DRed-zone O
44· CRed-zone D
5· F3rd down O
5· F3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.013
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.057
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.022
Defensive EPA/play
+0.028
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.1%
Def Success Rate
46.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
23.4%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
23.8%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.050
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
+0.129
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.93

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.73
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.22
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.27
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.17
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#90
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
—
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
#30
recruiting 60 spots higher
13 blue-chip recruits

Peer Context

Where North Carolina ranks among all FBS teams in 2018 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
39th
Opp-adjusted defense
30th
Offensive EPA/play
38th
Defensive EPA/play
38th
Offensive success rate
20th
Explosiveness
43th
Defensive havoc
73th
Points per drive
28th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1App State2025OA -0.044 / -0.105similar: run defense, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3532Georgia Southern2017OA -0.076 / -0.104similar: offensive success rate, defensive success rate, run defense3473Florida International2025OA -0.074 / -0.025similar: run defense, defensive success rate, rushing offense3444Old Dominion2017OA -0.153 / -0.078similar: defensive EPA, passing offense, pass defense3445NC State2019OA -0.065 / -0.033similar: havoc rate, pass defense, defensive EPA330

2018 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ California17-24L+7.0P57.5U
2@ East Carolina19-41L-16.5L59O
4vs Pittsburgh38-35W+3.0W48O
5@ Miami10-47L+17.5L56O
7vs Virginia Tech19-22L+6.5W57.5U
8@ Syracuse37-40L+9.5W67O
9@ Virginia21-31L+7.5L51O
10vs Georgia Tech28-38L+4.0L66P
11@ Duke35-42L+7.5W58.5O
12vs Western Carolina49-26W-31.0L81.5U
13vs NC State28-34L+7.5W61.5O

Betting Profile

ATS Record
5-5-1
50.0%
O/U Record
7-3-1
70.0%
Straight Up
2-9
18.2%
Home ATS3-2
Away ATS2-3
Favorite ATS0-2
Underdog ATS5-3
Last 5 ATS
LLWLW
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off11thRush Off63thRed Zone Off28th3rd Down Off5thPass Def61thRush Def17thRed Zone Def45th3rd Down Def5th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.04029th+0.04233th
Red Zone-0.08528th+0.03145th
Third Down-0.2355th+0.3855th
No Garbage Time-0.03133th+0.03336th
First Half-0.02140th+0.10315th
Second Half-0.05826th-0.02059th
Early Downs+0.04070th+0.02933th
Passing Downs-0.15411th-0.04061th
Standard Downs+0.02863th+0.08717th
Goal to Go-0.4445th+0.3857th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.8%Rush 49.2%
Havoc/Game
15.7
Havoc Rate
20.8%
TO Margin
-0.5
Explosive/G
16.3
Yards/Game
442.1
Pts/Drive
1.93
3rd Down%
34.5%
3&Out%
24.3%

Team Statistics

2018 season totals across 11 games — North Carolina vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNorth CarolinaOpponents
Scoring
Points301380
Points / Game27.434.5
First Downs
Total234249
Rushing105118
Passing117110
Penalty1221
Rushing
Attempts402477
Yards2,1232,407
Yards / Carry5.35.0
Yards / Game193.0218.8
Touchdowns1928
Passing
Attempts415346
Completions244196
Completion %58.8%56.6%
Yards2,7402,517
Yards / Attempt6.67.3
Touchdowns1417
Interceptions147
Passer Rating118.64129.92
Total Offense
Plays817823
Yards4,8634,924
Yards / Play6.06.0
Yards / Game442.1447.6
Punt Returns
Returns2016
Yards28656
Average14.33.5
Touchdowns10
Kickoff Returns
Returns3420
Yards723387
Average21.319.4
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts5055
Yards1,9932,135
Average39.938.8
Interception Returns
Returns714
Yards38310
Touchdowns03
Fumbles
Fumbles1920
Lost910
Penalties
Penalties6655
Yards612447
Yards / Game55.640.6
Time of Possession
Per Game28:1631:44
Third Downs
Attempts168162
Conversions5871
Conversion %34.5%43.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts2118
Conversions109
Conversion %47.6%50.0%
Red Zone
Trips4548
Scores (TD + FG)3740
Score %82.2%83.3%
Touchdowns2430
TD %53.3%62.5%
Field Goals
Attempts2817
Made1813
Pct64.3%76.5%
PAT Kicking
Attempts3346
Made3345
Pct100.0%97.8%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts21
Made21
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →