Fourth Down Data
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MASS

Massachusetts

MinutemenRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference1-0#3 (+12.92)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

98· A+Overall
Offense
88· BRating
64· CPer play
57· CConsistency
40· CBig plays
Defense
96· ARating
83· BPer play
72· BConsistency
Situational
44· CRed-zone O
54· CRed-zone D
32· D3rd down O
60· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.063
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.094
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.141
Defensive EPA/play
-0.412
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.8%
Def Success Rate
38.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
22.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.9%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.552
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.85

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.65
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.49
own kicking game
Kick Defense
+0.16
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.05
own return game
Return Defense
+0.04
vs opponent returns

Performance vs Perception

Our opponent-adjusted model rank vs. how others rate this team. Descriptive — where the model and the consensus disagree.

Model Rank
#3
opponent-adjusted strength
AP Poll
NR
model 23 spots higher
Market (Vegas)
—
unavailable
Recruiting Rank
—
no recruiting profile

Peer Context

Where Massachusetts ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
93th
Opp-adjusted defense
96th
Offensive EPA/play
64th
Defensive EPA/play
84th
Offensive success rate
62th
Explosiveness
40th
Defensive havoc
96th
Points per drive
51th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Alabama2022OA -0.002 / +0.058similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, defensive EPA3522Baylor2019OA +0.062 / +0.147similar: run defense, defensive success rate, defensive EPA3373North Carolina2019OA +0.113 / -0.014similar: defensive success rate, turnover rate, rushing offense3344Marshall2025OA +0.006 / -0.022similar: turnover rate, offensive EPA, TD drive rate3225Tulane2025OA -0.011 / +0.016similar: TD drive rate, pass defense, rushing offense321

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Rutgers37-21W+29.0W52.5O
2vs Sacred Heart------
3vs Stonehill------
4@ Sacramento State------
5vs Eastern Michigan------
6vs Miami (OH)------
7@ Buffalo------
8@ UConn------
10vs Ball State------
11@ Toledo------
12vs Akron------
13@ Bowling Green------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off29thRush Off88thRed Zone Off45th3rd Down Off32thPass Def17thRush Def87thRed Zone Def54th3rd Down Def61th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.14169th-0.12457th
Red Zone-0.01045th-0.16654th
Third Down-0.15432th-0.18761th
No Garbage Time+0.14164th-0.41288th
First Half+0.46598th-0.24773th
Second Half-0.23917th-0.03846th
Early Downs+0.32193th-0.71999th
Passing Downs-0.15929th+0.36317th
Standard Downs+0.27088th-0.38687th
Goal to Go-0.42813th+0.56935th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 34.9%Rush 65.1%
Havoc/Game
22.0
Havoc Rate
34.9%
TO Margin
+4.0
Explosive/G
14.0
Yards/Game
397.0
Pts/Drive
2.85
3rd Down%
36.4%
3&Out%
15.4%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Massachusetts vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatMassachusettsOpponents
Scoring
Points3721
Points / Game37.021.0
First Downs
Total2118
Rushing135
Passing812
Penalty01
Rushing
Attempts4125
Yards20027
Yards / Carry4.91.1
Yards / Game200.027.0
Touchdowns10
Passing
Attempts2238
Completions1922
Completion %86.4%57.9%
Yards197319
Yards / Attempt9.08.4
Touchdowns33
Interceptions03
Passer Rating206.58138.67
Total Offense
Plays6363
Yards397346
Yards / Play6.35.5
Yards / Game397.0346.0
Punt Returns
Returns02
Yards024
Average—12.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns10
Yards80
Average8.0—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts33
Yards172130
Average57.343.3
Interception Returns
Returns30
Yards120
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles11
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties87
Yards6034
Yards / Game60.034.0
Time of Possession
Per Game36:2123:39
Third Downs
Attempts1111
Conversions43
Conversion %36.4%27.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts15
Conversions14
Conversion %100.0%80.0%
Red Zone
Trips43
Scores (TD + FG)42
Score %100.0%66.7%
Touchdowns22
TD %50.0%66.7%
Field Goals
Attempts30
Made30
Pct100.0%—
PAT Kicking
Attempts43
Made43
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →