Fourth Down Data
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CMU

Central Michigan

ChippewasRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference0-1#118 (-6.96)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

14· FOverall
Offense
12· FRating
2· FPer play
1· FConsistency
2· FBig plays
Defense
26· DRating
17· DPer play
4· FConsistency
Situational
27· DRed-zone D
14· F3rd down O
15· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.073
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.017
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.550
Defensive EPA/play
+0.146
lower = better
Off Success Rate
31.3%
Def Success Rate
55.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
8.7%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
14.5%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.696
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.04
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.07
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.05
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.03
own return game
Return Defense
-0.09
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Central Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
9th
Opp-adjusted defense
36th
Offensive EPA/play
2th
Defensive EPA/play
17th
Offensive success rate
2th
Explosiveness
2th
Defensive havoc
15th
Points per drive
1th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Rutgers2019OA -0.170 / -0.065similar: TD drive rate, run defense, offensive EPA4552San José State2017OA -0.187 / -0.129similar: TD drive rate, offensive EPA, run defense4013Northern Illinois2026OA -0.089 / -0.010similar: offensive success rate, havoc rate, offensive EPA3854UConn2021OA -0.200 / -0.127similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, TD drive rate3765Syracuse2025OA -0.108 / -0.012similar: offensive EPA, passing offense, takeaway rate374

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ New Mexico7-38L+10.5L47.5U
2vs Colgate------
3vs Wyoming------
4@ Miami------
5vs Akron------
6@ Ohio------
7vs Western Michigan------
8vs Miami (OH)------
10@ Eastern Michigan------
11vs Sacramento State------
12@ Buffalo------
13@ Ball State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off15thRush Off23thRed Zone Off0th3rd Down Off14thPass Def50thRush Def12thRed Zone Def27th3rd Down Def15th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.21012th+0.08723th
Red Zone-0th+0.37027th
Third Down-0.50414th+0.45815th
No Garbage Time-0.5502th+0.14618th
First Half-0.6034th+0.10223th
Second Half+0.02749th+0.05735th
Early Downs-0.2698th+0.03728th
Passing Downs-0.30415th-0.04750th
Standard Downs-0.13723th+0.14212th
Goal to Go-0th+0.34055th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 33.3%Rush 66.7%
Havoc/Game
8.0
Havoc Rate
11.1%
TO Margin
-2.0
Explosive/G
2.0
Yards/Game
149.0
Pts/Drive
0.00
3rd Down%
18.2%
3&Out%
66.7%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Central Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatCentral MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points738
Points / Game7.038.0
First Downs
Total928
Rushing712
Passing29
Penalty07
Rushing
Attempts3244
Yards119205
Yards / Carry3.74.7
Yards / Game119.0205.0
Touchdowns13
Passing
Attempts1625
Completions717
Completion %43.8%68.0%
Yards30159
Yards / Attempt1.96.4
Touchdowns01
Interceptions10
Passer Rating47.00134.62
Total Offense
Plays4869
Yards149364
Yards / Play3.15.3
Yards / Game149.0364.0
Punt Returns
Returns02
Yards047
Average—23.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns00
Yards00
Average——
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts62
Yards30681
Average51.040.5
Interception Returns
Returns01
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles11
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties94
Yards8420
Yards / Game84.020.0
Time of Possession
Per Game22:3137:29
Third Downs
Attempts1113
Conversions27
Conversion %18.2%53.8%
Fourth Downs
Attempts31
Conversions21
Conversion %66.7%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips04
Scores (TD + FG)04
Score %—100.0%
Touchdowns04
TD %—100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts04
Made03
Pct—75.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts13
Made13
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts01
Made01
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →