Fourth Down Data
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NCSU

NC State

WolfpackBalanced
Atlantic Coast Conference0-1#90 (-2.39)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

35· DOverall
Offense
29· DRating
6· FPer play
11· FConsistency
10· FBig plays
Defense
42· CRating
23· DPer play
9· FConsistency
Situational
0· FRed-zone O
25· DRed-zone D
45· C3rd down O
91· A-3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.050
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.006
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.318
Defensive EPA/play
+0.089
lower = better
Off Success Rate
37.3%
Def Success Rate
51.5%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
15.8%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
22.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.408
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
0.78

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.59
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.37
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.19
own return game
Return Defense
+0.13
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where NC State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
15th
Opp-adjusted defense
47th
Offensive EPA/play
6th
Defensive EPA/play
23th
Offensive success rate
12th
Explosiveness
10th
Defensive havoc
4th
Points per drive
10th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Indiana2021OA -0.067 / -0.003similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, run defense4152Massachusetts2025OA -0.185 / -0.202similar: passing offense, offensive EPA, havoc rate4093Rutgers2026OA -0.094 / -0.063similar: defensive success rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA4074South Alabama2019OA -0.148 / -0.021similar: TD drive rate, offensive success rate, run defense3985Rice2018OA -0.165 / -0.155similar: pass defense, defensive success rate, offensive EPA386

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
0@ Virginia8-34L+4.0L51U
2vs Richmond------
3@ Vanderbilt------
4vs App State------
5vs Louisville------
6vs Wake Forest------
8@ Stanford------
9vs California------
10vs Duke------
11vs Syracuse------
12@ Florida State------
13@ North Carolina------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off10thRush Off7thRed Zone Off0th3rd Down Off45thPass Def69thRush Def17thRed Zone Def25th3rd Down Def92th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.3673th+0.04031th
Red Zone-1.4440th+0.37325th
Third Down+0.02945th-0.79492th
No Garbage Time-0.3185th+0.08923th
First Half-0.6742th-0.01841th
Second Half-0.04841th+0.09531th
Early Downs-0.3514th+0.11318th
Passing Downs-0.41010th-0.22269th
Standard Downs-0.3407th+0.12117th
Goal to Go+1.05895th+0.42248th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 52.9%Rush 47.1%
Havoc/Game
5.0
Havoc Rate
7.1%
TO Margin
-2.0
Explosive/G
6.0
Yards/Game
168.0
Pts/Drive
0.78
3rd Down%
30.8%
3&Out%
44.4%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — NC State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatNC StateOpponents
Scoring
Points834
Points / Game8.034.0
First Downs
Total1019
Rushing315
Passing54
Penalty20
Rushing
Attempts2457
Yards76258
Yards / Carry3.24.5
Yards / Game76.0258.0
Touchdowns12
Passing
Attempts2711
Completions159
Completion %55.6%81.8%
Yards92155
Yards / Attempt3.414.1
Touchdowns02
Interceptions10
Passer Rating76.77260.18
Total Offense
Plays5168
Yards168413
Yards / Play3.36.1
Yards / Game168.0413.0
Punt Returns
Returns21
Yards320
Average16.00.0
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns20
Yards540
Average27.0—
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts75
Yards327227
Average46.745.4
Interception Returns
Returns01
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles10
Lost10
Penalties
Penalties25
Yards1351
Yards / Game13.051.0
Time of Possession
Per Game21:5738:03
Third Downs
Attempts1314
Conversions43
Conversion %30.8%21.4%
Fourth Downs
Attempts14
Conversions04
Conversion %0.0%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips22
Scores (TD + FG)12
Score %50.0%100.0%
Touchdowns12
TD %50.0%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts02
Made02
Pct—100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts04
Made04
Pct—100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts10
Made10
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →