Fourth Down Data
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WMU

Western Michigan

BroncosRun-Heavy
Mid-American Conference0-1#51 (+3.83)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

63· COverall
Offense
36· DRating
14· FPer play
28· DConsistency
7· FBig plays
Defense
90· A-Rating
68· CPer play
40· CConsistency
Situational
4· FRed-zone O
31· DRed-zone D
59· C3rd down O
96· A3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.027
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.056
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
-0.181
Defensive EPA/play
-0.223
lower = better
Off Success Rate
43.3%
Def Success Rate
43.8%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
14.9%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
14.6%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.043
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
1.09

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.69
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.42
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.10
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.03
own return game
Return Defense
+0.40
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Western Michigan ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
25th
Opp-adjusted defense
85th
Offensive EPA/play
15th
Defensive EPA/play
69th
Offensive success rate
28th
Explosiveness
7th
Defensive havoc
47th
Points per drive
15th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1South Florida2026OA -0.058 / +0.068similar: offensive EPA, pass defense, TD drive rate3762Sam Houston2024OA -0.024 / +0.065similar: offensive success rate, passing offense, takeaway rate3753NC State2023OA -0.033 / +0.114similar: offensive EPA, offensive success rate, pass defense3624Louisiana2022OA -0.075 / +0.020similar: havoc rate, takeaway rate, rushing offense3515Baylor2020OA -0.052 / +0.028similar: offensive EPA, havoc rate, run defense346

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Michigan12-13L+27.5W49.5U
2vs Monmouth (NJ)------
3@ Rice------
4vs Boise State------
5@ Buffalo------
6vs Kent State------
7@ Central Michigan------
8@ Toledo------
9vs Bowling Green------
11@ Akron------
12vs Eastern Michigan------
13vs Miami (OH)------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS1-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off28thRush Off20thRed Zone Off4th3rd Down Off60thPass Def96thRush Def42thRed Zone Def32th3rd Down Def97th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall-0.18114th-0.22374th
Red Zone-0.8074th+0.27432th
Third Down+0.20860th-0.97097th
No Garbage Time-0.18115th-0.22369th
First Half-0.4007th-0.20567th
Second Half+0.02047th-0.25276th
Early Downs-0.15621th+0.03129th
Passing Downs-0.16228th-0.65596th
Standard Downs-0.19220th-0.04642th
Goal to Go-0th+0.17663th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 31.3%Rush 68.7%
Havoc/Game
9.0
Havoc Rate
18.0%
TO Margin
+3.0
Explosive/G
10.0
Yards/Game
221.0
Pts/Drive
1.09
3rd Down%
44.4%
3&Out%
18.2%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Western Michigan vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatWestern MichiganOpponents
Scoring
Points1213
Points / Game12.013.0
First Downs
Total1612
Rushing104
Passing46
Penalty22
Rushing
Attempts4625
Yards132106
Yards / Carry2.94.2
Yards / Game132.0106.0
Touchdowns01
Passing
Attempts2123
Completions1512
Completion %71.4%52.2%
Yards89170
Yards / Attempt4.27.4
Touchdowns01
Interceptions01
Passer Rating107.03119.91
Total Offense
Plays6748
Yards221276
Yards / Play3.35.8
Yards / Game221.0276.0
Punt Returns
Returns12
Yards09
Average0.04.5
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns01
Yards018
Average—18.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts66
Yards240268
Average40.044.7
Interception Returns
Returns10
Yards40
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles32
Lost02
Penalties
Penalties59
Yards4080
Yards / Game40.080.0
Time of Possession
Per Game40:0819:52
Third Downs
Attempts1810
Conversions83
Conversion %44.4%30.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts11
Conversions01
Conversion %0.0%100.0%
Red Zone
Trips31
Scores (TD + FG)21
Score %66.7%100.0%
Touchdowns01
TD %0.0%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts40
Made40
Pct100.0%—
PAT Kicking
Attempts01
Made01
Pct—100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →