Fourth Down Data
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Tulsa

Golden HurricaneBalanced
American Conference1-0#82 (-0.87)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

40· COverall
Offense
25· DRating
44· CPer play
25· DConsistency
25· DBig plays
Defense
66· CRating
58· CPer play
36· DConsistency
Situational
36· DRed-zone O
76· BRed-zone D
33· D3rd down O
43· C3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
-0.005
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.024
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.042
Defensive EPA/play
-0.161
lower = better
Off Success Rate
42.1%
Def Success Rate
44.7%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
19.3%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
28.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.203
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.53
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.34
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.13
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.14
own return game
Return Defense
+0.08
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Tulsa ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
42th
Opp-adjusted defense
65th
Offensive EPA/play
45th
Defensive EPA/play
58th
Offensive success rate
25th
Explosiveness
26th
Defensive havoc
28th
Points per drive
36th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Florida State2019OA -0.009 / +0.034similar: havoc rate, turnover rate, offensive success rate3432Colorado State2024OA -0.029 / +0.001similar: defensive success rate, defensive EPA, offensive success rate3373Florida2024OA -0.011 / +0.014similar: defensive EPA, turnover rate, TD drive rate3294Illinois2019OA -0.087 / +0.006similar: takeaway rate, turnover rate, defensive EPA3285Utah State2019OA -0.012 / +0.047similar: havoc rate, defensive EPA, pass defense320

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Oklahoma State24-10W+13.5W57.5U
2@ Sam Houston------
3vs East Texas A&M------
4@ Arkansas------
5vs North Texas------
6@ Navy------
7@ Rice------
8vs Army------
10@ Tulane------
11vs Florida Atlantic------
12vs Charlotte------
13@ UTSA------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
0-1
0.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS1-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off12thRush Off90thRed Zone Off36th3rd Down Off33thPass Def20thRush Def94thRed Zone Def76th3rd Down Def43th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.04245th-0.16162th
Red Zone-0.10936th-0.54376th
Third Down-0.15033th-0.02243th
No Garbage Time+0.04245th-0.16157th
First Half+0.08054th-0.16355th
Second Half+0.00245th-0.16061th
Early Downs+0.20580th-0.16564th
Passing Downs-0.36812th+0.32520th
Standard Downs+0.28190th-0.45494th
Goal to Go+0.36657th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 42.1%Rush 57.9%
Havoc/Game
12.0
Havoc Rate
14.0%
TO Margin
+3.0
Explosive/G
11.0
Yards/Game
361.0
Pts/Drive
2.00
3rd Down%
9.1%
3&Out%
16.7%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Tulsa vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatTulsaOpponents
Scoring
Points2410
Points / Game24.010.0
First Downs
Total1527
Rushing510
Passing813
Penalty24
Rushing
Attempts3337
Yards134127
Yards / Carry4.13.4
Yards / Game134.0127.0
Touchdowns20
Passing
Attempts2449
Completions1729
Completion %70.8%59.2%
Yards227241
Yards / Attempt9.54.9
Touchdowns11
Interceptions12
Passer Rating155.7099.07
Total Offense
Plays5786
Yards361368
Yards / Play6.34.3
Yards / Game361.0368.0
Punt Returns
Returns13
Yards-17
Average-1.02.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns11
Yards2022
Average20.022.0
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts42
Yards17188
Average42.844.0
Interception Returns
Returns21
Yards00
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles02
Lost02
Penalties
Penalties96
Yards10259
Yards / Game102.059.0
Time of Possession
Per Game28:5531:05
Third Downs
Attempts1116
Conversions15
Conversion %9.1%31.3%
Fourth Downs
Attempts16
Conversions12
Conversion %100.0%33.3%
Red Zone
Trips24
Scores (TD + FG)12
Score %50.0%50.0%
Touchdowns11
TD %50.0%25.0%
Field Goals
Attempts31
Made11
Pct33.3%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts31
Made31
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →