Fourth Down Data
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ARST

Arkansas State

Red WolvesBalanced
Sun Belt Conference0-1#41 (+4.89)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

70· BOverall
Offense
85· BRating
47· CPer play
66· CConsistency
90· A-Big plays
Defense
48· CRating
7· FPer play
14· FConsistency
Situational
30· DRed-zone O
19· DRed-zone D
35· D3rd down O
17· D3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.049
Opp-Adj Defense
-0.035
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.059
Defensive EPA/play
+0.289
lower = better
Off Success Rate
54.2%
Def Success Rate
52.4%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
30.5%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
33.3%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
-0.230
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
2.00

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
+0.38
expected pts/game
Kicking
+0.23
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.00
vs opponent kicks
Returns
-0.02
own return game
Return Defense
+0.18
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Arkansas State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
85th
Opp-adjusted defense
25th
Offensive EPA/play
47th
Defensive EPA/play
7th
Offensive success rate
74th
Explosiveness
91th
Defensive havoc
13th
Points per drive
36th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1Louisiana Tech2021OA -0.043 / -0.064similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, TD drive rate3352Rice2022OA -0.041 / -0.043similar: offensive EPA, rushing offense, turnover rate3333USC2021OA +0.029 / -0.095similar: turnover rate, TD drive rate, offensive EPA3334Wake Forest2024OA -0.006 / -0.031similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, pass defense3195Coastal Carolina2019OA -0.000 / -0.063similar: passing offense, pass defense, takeaway rate303

2026 Schedule & Results

12 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1@ Memphis24-42L+11.0L53.5O
2vs West Georgia------
3@ TCU------
4vs Kennesaw State------
5@ Louisiana------
6vs South Alabama------
7@ Southern Miss------
8vs Georgia State------
10vs UL Monroe------
11@ Coastal Carolina------
12@ Louisiana Tech------
13vs Troy------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
0-1
0.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
0-1
0.0%
Home ATS0-0
Away ATS0-1
Favorite ATS0-0
Underdog ATS0-1
Last 5 ATS
L
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off2thRush Off96thRed Zone Off30th3rd Down Off36thPass Def47thRush Def3thRed Zone Def19th3rd Down Def18th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.05951th+0.2896th
Red Zone-0.16430th+0.54919th
Third Down-0.07736th+0.44218th
No Garbage Time+0.05949th+0.2897th
First Half+0.25879th+0.3615th
Second Half-0.12130th+0.22019th
Early Downs+0.27690th+0.3244th
Passing Downs-0.8082th-0.01647th
Standard Downs+0.38196th+0.3933th
Goal to Go+0.69080th+0.44446th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.8%Rush 49.2%
Havoc/Game
7.0
Havoc Rate
10.6%
TO Margin
-2.0
Explosive/G
18.0
Yards/Game
434.0
Pts/Drive
2.00
3rd Down%
50.0%
3&Out%
0.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Arkansas State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatArkansas StateOpponents
Scoring
Points2442
Points / Game24.042.0
First Downs
Total2224
Rushing714
Passing138
Penalty22
Rushing
Attempts2948
Yards109335
Yards / Carry3.87.0
Yards / Game109.0335.0
Touchdowns24
Passing
Attempts3015
Completions2112
Completion %70.0%80.0%
Yards325188
Yards / Attempt10.812.5
Touchdowns12
Interceptions42
Passer Rating145.33202.61
Total Offense
Plays5963
Yards434523
Yards / Play7.48.3
Yards / Game434.0523.0
Punt Returns
Returns20
Yards70
Average3.5—
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns02
Yards027
Average—13.5
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts33
Yards102140
Average34.046.7
Interception Returns
Returns24
Yards1737
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles00
Lost00
Penalties
Penalties54
Yards3745
Yards / Game37.045.0
Time of Possession
Per Game30:3329:27
Third Downs
Attempts109
Conversions55
Conversion %50.0%55.6%
Fourth Downs
Attempts00
Conversions00
Conversion %——
Red Zone
Trips33
Scores (TD + FG)23
Score %66.7%100.0%
Touchdowns23
TD %66.7%100.0%
Field Goals
Attempts10
Made10
Pct100.0%—
PAT Kicking
Attempts36
Made36
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →