Fourth Down Data
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CSU

Colorado State

RamsBalanced
Pac-12 Conference1-0#62 (+1.71)
Early-season ratings are provisional. Opponent adjustment relies on a thin schedule graph until teams are connected through more games; expect movement through late September.

Grades

Percentile grades against every FBS team this season — 99 is best. Curved so an average team reads C, not F.

55· COverall
Offense
61· CRating
73· BPer play
61· CConsistency
74· BBig plays
Defense
52· CRating
56· CPer play
18· DConsistency
Situational
72· BRed-zone O
40· CRed-zone D
69· C3rd down O
99· A+3rd down D
How grades work →

Analytical Fingerprint

SS-native team profile — opponent-adjusted and garbage-filtered EPA, success, and explosiveness.

Opp-Adj Offense
+0.034
Opp-Adj Defense
+0.017
higher = better
Offensive EPA/play
+0.218
Defensive EPA/play
-0.151
lower = better
Off Success Rate
50.7%
Def Success Rate
49.1%
allowed · lower = better
Explosive Rate
26.2%
pass EPA > 1.0 · rush > 0.8
Explosive Allowed
19.2%
lower = better
Net EPA/play
+0.369
net · higher = better
Recent EPA Trend
0.000
last 3 weeks
Points / Drive
3.50

Special Teams

Opponent-adjusted special-teams component of the Final Rating, in expected points per game — positive = better. The four units sum to the net.

Net ST Rating
-0.48
expected pts/game
Kicking
-0.23
own kicking game
Kick Defense
-0.25
vs opponent kicks
Returns
+0.02
own return game
Return Defense
-0.02
vs opponent returns

Peer Context

Where Colorado State ranks among all FBS teams in 2026 (percentile).

Opp-adjusted offense
77th
Opp-adjusted defense
61th
Offensive EPA/play
74th
Defensive EPA/play
56th
Offensive success rate
61th
Explosiveness
75th
Defensive havoc
85th
Points per drive
62th

Historical Fingerprint

Most statistically similar team-seasons, 2017–2025, by the same 44-feature profile The Archive uses. Descriptive context, not a forecast.

1UAB2017OA -0.060 / -0.004similar: pass defense, turnover rate, run defense3122Arizona State2018OA +0.072 / -0.049similar: passing offense, defensive success rate, run defense3053Clemson2024OA +0.048 / +0.036similar: rushing offense, passing offense, takeaway rate3024Wake Forest2017OA +0.156 / +0.050similar: turnover rate, defensive EPA, offensive EPA3015Jacksonville State2025OA -0.063 / -0.020similar: rushing offense, takeaway rate, defensive EPA294

2026 Schedule & Results

11 games

WkOpponentScoreW/LSpreadATSTotalO/U
1vs Wyoming35-13W-3.0W46.5O
2vs Southern Utah------
3vs BYU------
4@ UTSA------
5vs Oregon State------
7@ Texas State------
8vs San Diego State------
9@ Utah State------
10vs Boise State------
11@ Washington State------
12@ Fresno State------

Betting Profile

ATS Record
1-0
100.0%
O/U Record
1-0
100.0%
Straight Up
1-0
100.0%
Home ATS1-0
Away ATS0-0
Favorite ATS1-0
Underdog ATS0-0
Last 5 ATS
W
Full ATS log & splits →
Graded against consensus market lines (median across multiple sportsbooks). Games the market never lined — mostly early-season non-FBS matchups — are excluded from ATS and O/U records; individual games may grade differently than closing-line sources.

Situational Profile

Situational EPA percentile across 8 phases (the larger the shape, the more dominant). Within-FBS ranks.

Pass Off79thRush Off70thRed Zone Off73th3rd Down Off70thPass Def80thRush Def47thRed Zone Def41th3rd Down Def100th
SituationOFF EPAOFF RankDEF EPADEF Rank
Overall+0.20680th-0.15961th
Red Zone+0.32573th+0.11641th
Third Down+0.39970th-1.502100th
No Garbage Time+0.21874th-0.15155th
First Half+0.03847th-0.18461th
Second Half+0.36891th-0.12055th
Early Downs-0.04136th+0.2169th
Passing Downs+0.39579th-0.34680th
Standard Downs+0.12670th-0.09247th
Goal to Go+0.86290th-0th

Style & Tendencies

Pass 50.7%Rush 49.3%
Havoc/Game
16.0
Havoc Rate
30.2%
TO Margin
+4.0
Explosive/G
17.0
Yards/Game
396.0
Pts/Drive
3.50
3rd Down%
46.7%
3&Out%
40.0%

Team Statistics

2026 season totals across 1 games — Colorado State vs. the combined line of every opponent in those games.
StatColorado StateOpponents
Scoring
Points3513
Points / Game35.013.0
First Downs
Total1817
Rushing810
Passing96
Penalty11
Rushing
Attempts3334
Yards154143
Yards / Carry4.74.2
Yards / Game154.0143.0
Touchdowns01
Passing
Attempts3419
Completions2412
Completion %70.6%63.2%
Yards242130
Yards / Attempt7.16.8
Touchdowns50
Interceptions03
Passer Rating178.9189.05
Total Offense
Plays6753
Yards396273
Yards / Play5.95.2
Yards / Game396.0273.0
Punt Returns
Returns33
Yards3410
Average11.33.3
Touchdowns00
Kickoff Returns
Returns13
Yards2577
Average25.025.7
Touchdowns00
Punting
Punts44
Yards174214
Average43.553.5
Interception Returns
Returns30
Yards60
Touchdowns00
Fumbles
Fumbles02
Lost01
Penalties
Penalties46
Yards3647
Yards / Game36.047.0
Time of Possession
Per Game29:1930:41
Third Downs
Attempts158
Conversions70
Conversion %46.7%0.0%
Fourth Downs
Attempts21
Conversions20
Conversion %100.0%0.0%
Red Zone
Trips52
Scores (TD + FG)42
Score %80.0%100.0%
Touchdowns41
TD %80.0%50.0%
Field Goals
Attempts12
Made02
Pct0.0%100.0%
PAT Kicking
Attempts51
Made51
Pct100.0%100.0%
Two-Point Conversions
Attempts00
Made00
Official-stats conventions: rushing includes sacks as negative attempts (NCAA), so Total Offense = rush + pass. Red-zone Score % counts touchdowns and field goals per trip.
Compare to any opponent →Find similar matchups →Team identity →Situational splits →